A gamble by incumbent Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston to discard the first law his government passed and swap a July election for a snap poll at the end of November has paid off.
After months of telegraphing his early election plan, Houston made the call on Oct. 27, triggering a short one-month campaign period he said was necessary to get more from the federal government.
Advance polling showed a drop in the number of people turning out to vote in the election — something Liberal Party Leader Zach Churchill said was likely due to “election fatigue” after the U.S. presidential election.
The Progressive Conservatives’ gamble, however, has rewarded him with a sizeable win across the province.
By late Tuesday night, the Progressive Conservatives remained in the 40-seat range, with 10 going to the NDP. The Liberals were between two and four seats, with one Independent.
At dissolution, the PCs held 34 seats in the 55-seat legislature. The Liberals held 14 seats, the NDP had six and there was one Independent.
“This is an incredible night,” Houston told supporters on Tuesday night.
“So much is possible for this province, and I promise you I will do everything I can to make it happen for this province, to make it happen for you and for your family.”
A successful gamble with a cost
In October 2021, Houston’s government introduced a law to set the election for July 15, 2025, a move that he promised would bring “confidence” for voters in the province’s electoral system.
“Having a fixed date will mean predictability, transparency and it will limit any perceived advantage by the government to control the timing of the next election,” Houston said at the time.
“The changes we are proposing will also allow Elections Nova Scotia to better plan for future elections, which can result in significant cost savings.”
Three years later, Houston threw out that promise without a fixed-term election ever being held in the province.
The move brought forward Nova Scotia’s election by more than half-a-year and left the province’s elections body scrambling to plan a snap ballot and likely wiped out the savings Houston had promised.
In early 2024, Elections Nova Scotia’s annual planning documents praised the fixed-date election law for providing “surety” that “permits more efficient work plans moving forward and without the prospect of duplicating efforts.”
Asked by Global News how much the last-minute election would cost the province, the electoral body refused to comment.
“Elections Nova Scotia will provide a full financial report in our post-election reports but we can’t speak to costs while the election is still on,” a spokesperson said.
A report on early election preparations published in the summer said calling an early election could cost at least $400,000 more than planned, a number that “may increase” as more staff were called in.
Opposition politicians pounded on the early election call when the writ dropped, suggesting it was a cynical move by Houston and his Progressive Conservatives.
The Liberals announced policies targeting it, including a $250,000 fine for any party that doesn’t stick to the province’s fixed election date, for example, and accused Houston of putting “his own ambition” ahead of the province.
But, despite the costs of an early election and cynicism from the opposition, the gamble appears to have paid off and rewarded Houston with a renewed and increased mandate.
Dealing with Ottawa
That new, strengthened mandate, Houston said, would help him to battle for more funding and concessions from the federal government.
“My word is important to me, it’s really important to me, but the thing that’s more important to me is Nova Scotians,” he said on the first day of the campaign, repeating his message that he needed a strong mandate now — not next July — to stand up to Ottawa on issues like the resettlement of asylum seekers and the imposition of the federal carbon price.
Weeks later, at the end of the campaign, he repeated the message that he needed a stronger, newer mandate for Ottawa to “take us seriously” on the Atlantic coast.
Former federal Conservative minister Peter MacKay agreed with the Progressive Conservative leader.
He said the election call was necessary to convince the federal government to listen to Nova Scotia and show residents were opposed to policies from Ottawa like the price on carbon.
MacKay told Global News Nova Scotia cabinet ministers “weren’t treated seriously” by the federal government before the election when they travelled to Ottawa and “were almost mocked.”
“I think the premier took that as a call to action,” he said. “We’re seeing now I believe a repudiation of a lot of the policies of the federal government, including the carbon tax, that was a live issue on the doorsteps.”
One political expert suggested that the strategy was designed to deflect any frustration from Houston as the sitting premier.
“He obviously wanted to run against Trudeau in this election,” Lori Turnbull, political professor at the University of Dalhousie said, suggesting Houston had tried to avoid “wedge” politics through the campaign.
“Any kind of feeling that the province wasn’t going the way it should — that’s something that is typically taken out on the incumbent. He’s able to use Trudeau as the incumbent rather than have that energy being put back toward himself.”
The Tories’ convincing win — with an increased majority from the 2021 election — breaks a recent trend that has seen other provincial incumbents lose support, or be booted out of office.
Last month, B.C. NDP Premier David Eby barely held on to power when voters outside Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland threw their support behind the Conservative Party of BC, a party that barely existed 18 months ago.
Less than a week later in New Brunswick, Progressive Conservative premier Blaine Higgs lost his bid for a third term after adopting a series of socially conservative measures and alienating much of his caucus. And on Oct. 28, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe won a substantially reduced majority as his Saskatchewan Party was almost shut out of the province’s big cities.
— with files from The Canadian Press