Donald Trump’s return to the White House could mark a turning point for Ukraine in the war against Russia’s invasion, and potentially an end to U.S. support for Kyiv’s war effort.
Trump and his running mate, vice-president-elect JD Vance, have openly railed against continuing American military and financial aid for Ukraine and have vowed to push a negotiated end to the war — one that could include giving up Ukrainian territory seized by Russia in its nearly three-year-long assault on the country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has repeatedly stressed that Russia must be forced into a peace deal on Ukraine’s terms, congratulated Trump on his victory Wednesday morning and expressed confidence in working together to bring the war to an end.
“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media. “This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.”
Zelenskyy had posted that he spoke with Trump to congratulate him.
“We agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our cooperation. Strong and unwavering U.S. leadership is vital for the world and for a just peace,” he wrote.
But Zelenskyy may face a frosty reception from Republicans in Washington, who are on track to control both chambers of Congress, after the Ukrainian president publicly criticized Trump and Vance and appeared with Democrats during his most recent U.S. trip during the election campaign, angering GOP lawmakers.
“There is a lot of uncertainty that is going to cloud a lot of what happens,” said Oleksa Drachewych, a professor at Western University who specializes in Ukrainian and Russian history and politics.
“The worst-case scenario is that the U.S. support for Ukraine just stops.”
The uncertainty comes as Ukraine faces yet another winter of punishing Russian missile barrages on critical infrastructure, as well as the arrival of thousands of troops from North Korea. The war has been in an effective stalemate for over a year, and both sides have continued to mount casualties.
Trump met with Zelenskyy in New York in September, where the Ukrainian leader detailed his “victory plan” that includes Ukrainian membership in NATO, the return of all territory taken by Russia during the war, and Russian funds for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The plan proposes that Ukrainian forces would become a new European defensive line against Russia and that Ukraine would develop a domestic military industrial base that would gradually replace its reliance on western weaponry.
Following the meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy both expressed confidence in their relationship and a commitment to seeing an end to the war, but Trump also noted his “good relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump has not explicitly said if he wants Ukraine to win the war with Russia despite being asked directly multiple times, only saying “I want this war to stop,” and that he would force Zelenskyy and Putin to hash out a peace deal.
Vance has been more specific on what he thinks that deal should be — and it aligns with Russia’s demands.
In a podcast interview in September, Vance said the current front line could become a “heavily fortified” demilitarized zone to prevent a future invasion — meaning much of the land taken by Russia since 2022 would have to be surrendered. He said Ukraine would also have to guarantee its neutrality, including that it won’t join NATO and other “allied institutions.”
“I think that’s ultimately what this (peace deal) looks like,” Vance said. “By the way, the Germans and other countries have to fund some Ukrainian reconstruction.”
Drachewych said Vance’s scenario would condemn the Ukrainians living in the Donbas — many of whom oppose Russia’s illegal annexation of their territories in 2022 — to further subjugation. The international community, including Canada, is investigating the forced deportation and re-education of Ukrainian children and families from the Donbas by Russia.
“Best-case scenario, there will be a resistance that’s happening there,” Drachewych said. “Ukraine is going to still always want to have that territory, and we’re just going to be essentially kicking the ball down the street a little bit farther.
“I always ask, what does lasting peace look like? And unfortunately, that’s a much harder discussion.”
Zelenskyy told The New Yorker in September that Vance was “too radical” and that Trump “doesn’t really know how to stop the war, even if he might think he knows how.”
The Ukrainian president further angered Republicans after he toured a Pennsylvania arms factory with the state’s Democratic governor and other lawmakers without any GOP politicians in September. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, the top Republican in Congress, urged Zelenskyy to fire the Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. over what he called “election interference” in a critical swing state.
Republicans suggested to Fox News that Zelenskyy’s actions would be “counterproductive” to his efforts to secure future U.S. aid from Congress, which is expected to be under complete Republican control after Tuesday’s elections.
As Ukraine’s top military backer, the U.S. has sent tens of billions of dollars in arms and led international efforts to isolate Moscow diplomatically and through financial sanctions. U.S. President Joe Biden has made Ukraine’s defence a top foreign policy priority.
In terms of share of GDP, Europe has sent more overall aid to Ukraine than the U.S., according to the Kiel Institute’s tracker of global Ukraine support.
But Trump and Vance, along with some of their more conservative Republican allies in Congress, have argued that U.S. aid would be better spent solving economic issues at home and that continuing the war will only enrich American defence contractors while pushing Russia toward launching nuclear weapons.
As Speaker, Johnson managed to work with Democrats to pass additional aid over objections from those Republican hardliners. The final supplemental aid bill included requirements for a clear victory plan and made some of the humanitarian aid a loan.
Drachewych said Zelenskyy and his government may have to offer more concessions to Trump, like additional loans, in order to keep some aid flowing.
In the meantime, Canada will have to continue to lead on issues like humanitarian aid and reuniting separated Ukrainian families, he added.
Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly told reporters in Ottawa Wednesday that she had spoken to her Ukrainian counterpart and now outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the wake of Trump’s victory.
She declined to say if a Trump administration would make it harder to resolve the war in Ukraine and other global conflicts in the way Canada may want.
“We all want peace and stability, but at the same time we know Ukrainians are fighting not only for their freedom but also for all of us,” she said.
Yaroslav Zheleznyak, an opposition Ukrainian lawmaker, said on Telegram that the transition until Trump takes office in January could be “a window of opportunity” for Biden to take “bold steps” to secure additional support for Ukraine.
Kyiv has pressed the Biden administration for speedier weapons deliveries and for the ability to strike Russian territory with U.S.-supplied long-range missiles, which Biden has so far been reluctant to do.
However, Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko told Global News he felt Trump would want to find a way to avoid a stain on his legacy.
“If (there is) a catastrophe and Ukraine will fall, it would already be Trump’s catastrophe, like how Afghanistan became Biden’s catastrophe,” he said.
“He (Trump) doesn’t want a catastrophe.”
— with files from Global’s Nathaniel Dove