As Parliament returns, support for Trudeau at ‘new low’: poll

As the House of Commons gets back to business for the fall session, support for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government has hit a “new low,” new polling shows.

Just over one-third of Canadians (33 per cent) approve of the Trudeau government, according to an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News and released on Monday. That approval rating is down by four points since the last time Ipsos did a similar poll in June.

Darrell Bricker, global CEO of Ipsos public affairs, said it’s not just the government message that’s unappealing to voters but the messenger himself, meaning Trudeau.

“What we’ve heard from the government is that they were going to try and improve their popularity and their level of approval over the course of the summer, and that clearly hasn’t happened,” Bricker said in an interview with Global News.

“In fact, the numbers have gone in quite the opposite direction, we’ve seen, since June,” he said.

2:15 Trudeau says he ‘can’t wait’ to get into it with Poilievre for parliament’s return

Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who has led in the polls for more than a year, was favoured by 45 per cent of Canadians surveyed by Ipsos, who said he would make the “best prime minister of Canada.”

Fewer Canadians felt that way about the incumbent leader, however, with just 26 per cent saying Trudeau was their top pick for PM. New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh was not far behind with the support of 23 per cent of Canadians.

Nationally, only six per cent chose Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet.

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The poll comes as MPs return to the House of Commons on Monday in a significantly changed political landscape, particularly after the New Democrats pulled out of a supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals.

Bricker said given the Liberals’ declining support shown in the polls, “there’s an incentive for the opposition parties to bargain very hard with the government, not fearing an election.”

2:11 Byelections to test Liberal, NDP strongholds in Montreal, Winnipeg

Monday will also see voters in two Canadian ridings – one in Quebec and another in Manitoba – head to the polls.

In Quebec, the Liberals are hoping to hold the LaSalle—Émard—Verdun riding, which became vacant when former justice minister David Lametti resigned from politics. The riding has been Liberal red since its creation in 2013 and its first election in 2015, which swept the Liberals into power.

In Manitoba, the NDP hopes to keep the riding of Elmwood-Transcona in orange hands after three-term MP Daniel Blaikie stepped down.

Economic issues are top of mind for Canadians.

In the Ipsos poll, 47 per cent said they want Canada’s elected officials to focus on reducing the cost of everyday items, such as groceries, this fall.

More than a third (36 per cent) also want MPs to prioritize inflation and interest rates.

The annual rate of inflation cooled to 2.5 per cent in July, according to Statistics Canada’s latest report from August. That was the slowest pace for price growth since March 2021.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada has cut its key interest rate in three consecutive decisions, bringing it down to 4.25 per cent earlier this month.

Affordable housing (28 per cent) and immigration (25 per cent) were also among the top five concerns for Canadians, according to Ipsos.

4:20 43% of Canadians worry they don’t have enough money for food: poll

In preparation for Parliament’s return, the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Bloc Québécois all met to discuss their fall strategy last week.

Speaking to reporters in Nanaimo, B.C., on Sept. 11, Trudeau said he was gearing up and ready to face off against Poilievre.

“I can’t wait to continue getting into it this fall with Pierre Poilievre, whose perspective is (that) cuts are the only way forward — because I know confident countries invest in the future,” Trudeau said.

Poilievre has pledged to bring forward a non-confidence motion in the Liberal government “at the earliest possible opportunity” in the House of Commons — and has directly challenged Singh to vote with him.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between Sept. 5 and Sept. 9, 2024, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

— with files from Global News’ Sean Previl and The Canadian Press