As the fall session of Quebec’s legislature kicks off this week, Premier François Legault will have to fend off claims his government is past its best-before date, even as he works to shepherd a pivotal energy bill into law.
Legault’s right-leaning Coalition Avenir Québec government has been lagging in the polls since last fall, dogged by controversies and missteps. The premier suffered another blow last week with the abrupt resignation of one of his highest-profile ministers, Pierre Fitzgibbon, who cited a loss of enthusiasm for the job.
It was the third departure from Legault’s caucus in a little over one year, and opposition leaders were quick to claim it as a sign his government, two years into a second majority mandate, is nearing the end of its life.
At the close of a caucus retreat in Rimouski, Que., last week, Legault said he had no sense his leadership is under threat. “I have enough experience to know that in just about every government there are departures for all kinds of reasons,” he said.
Still, as minister of energy and the economy, Fitzgibbon was responsible for some of the government’s most important files, including a major energy bill he tabled just before the legislature rose for the summer.
The bill would make sweeping changes to the operations of the province’s hydro utility and to how electricity rates are fixed. It’s part of an attempt to double Hydro-Québec’s capacity to help the province become carbon neutral by 2050.
The beginning of the fall session will be dominated by the energy bill, which “significantly transforms the mission of Hydro-Québec and Quebec’s entire energy outlook for years and decades to come,” said David Heurtel, political analyst and former Liberal minister.
Fitzgibbon, known for being a straight shooter, recently told reporters there will be “significant increases” in the province’s electricity rates in the next five to 10 years. Legault, however, has continued to insist that residential rates will not increase by more than three per cent per year while he is premier, though he has said commercial rates could rise.
The issue will likely “turn into some sort of vast debate on the future of energy production” in a province that prides itself on having some of the cheapest electricity rates in North America, Heurtel said.
It will now fall to Christine Fréchette, Legault’s newly appointed economy and energy minister, to guide the bill through the legislature, where hearings are to begin this week. Opposition Liberal member Marwah Rizqy has called on the government to withdraw the bill rather than proceed under a minister “who’s been sworn in for two-and-a-quarter minutes.”
Last week, Legault said immigration and health care will be his other main areas of focus this fall. For months, the Quebec premier has been calling on the federal government to reduce the number of non-permanent residents in the province, which has increased to nearly 600,000 from 300,000 in 2022.
Legault claims temporary immigrants are responsible for the province’s housing crisis and are straining health care and education. On Thursday, he said Quebec needs to “send a very clear message” to Ottawa that something needs to change.
The premier recently promised to introduce legislation this fall that would allow the government to limit the number of international students coming to Quebec. Heurtel said Legault has been using immigration as “a shield to divert attention from his poor poll numbers.”
The CAQ government is also under pressure to reach a deal with a union representing most of the province’s nurses, which recently marked 500 days without a collective agreement. Last month, the union called on its members to refuse to work overtime starting Sept. 19.
Both the Liberals and the sovereigntist Parti Québécois tried to make hay with Fitzgibbon’s departure last week. PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon boarded a campaign-style bus with his caucus to drive the 600 kilometres from their retreat in Rouyn-Noranda, Que., to Fitzgibbon’s riding of Terrebonne, northeast of Montreal, where Legault will have to call a byelection in the next six months.
The riding was a PQ stronghold before Fitzgibbon’s victory in 2018, and St-Pierre Plamondon, sensing a potential victory, is urging Legault to call the byelection sooner rather than later. “We are ready and very motivated,” he said Thursday.
The PQ has been leading in the polls for months, despite having just four elected members. Still, the next election isn’t scheduled until October 2026. “It’s an enormous challenge for the PQ to keep up the momentum for another two years,” said Antonine Yaccarini, a political analyst and former PQ and CAQ staffer.
The Liberals, meanwhile, are looking to a leadership contest to inject new life into a party that has struggled for years to find direction. Despite forming the official Opposition, the party is currently trailing the CAQ and the PQ in the polls, with little support from young people or francophone voters.
Federal Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez seems poised to launch a bid for the Quebec Liberal leadership, which will be decided next June. Three other candidates are officially running for the party’s top job, including former Montreal mayor Denis Coderre and Charles Milliard, former president of the Quebec federation of chambers of commerce.
A dynamic leadership race could turn things around for the Liberals, Yaccarini said, adding that the CAQ and the PQ “can’t taken anything for granted as long as they don’t know who will be the Liberal leader.”
The left-leaning Québec Solidaire is likewise trying to chart a path forward after a period of inner turmoil during which one of the party’s two spokespeople resigned in April just a few months after being elected. Spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois has since pushed the party to modernize and take a more pragmatic approach with the hope of one day forming government. The party, which typically has one male and one female spokesperson, will select its next female leader in November.
And while members return to the legislature Tuesday, its main chamber, known as the Salon bleu, is closed for renovations. They will instead sit across the hall, in the Salon rouge