Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s polling momentum continues to chug along with 40 per cent of Canadians saying he’s the best choice to be prime minister, according to a new Ipsos poll done exclusively for Global News.
Poilievre’s favourables on this question are up five points from a year ago. The number of respondents who think Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is the best choice remains static year-over-year at 31 per cent.
Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker said this gap shows the Conservatives could form a majority government if an election was held today.
“So a real economic set of concerns.”
The amount of respondents who think NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is the best choice to be prime minister slipped four points since September 2022, with 22 per cent of respondents saying he’s the best choice to lead the government.
On core issues facing Canada around the economy, health care and housing, the poll found a plurality of Canadians think Poilievre has the best plans across all three areas.
Regionally, Poilievre’s favourables top the list in every province and region except for Quebec. The territories were not included in this poll.
The poll shows Poilievre has pulled ahead as preferred prime minister in Ontario at 42 per cent, compared to Trudeau’s 38 per cent.
When it comes to cities, Bricker says the suburbs will be the battleground in the next election.
“Downtowns, no they’re pretty much a dead zone for the Conservative Party in most parts of the country,” Bricker said.
“But the suburbs, they’re competitive in. Particularly in the car-commuting suburbs around the city of Toronto and other big cities where we’ve seen the most population growth and the parts of the country that are seeing more seats as we go through redistribution.”
While the Conservatives could potentially form a majority government with this kind of popularity, Bricker said the tighter support levels around Ontario likely mean it would be one with a thin margin.
In Atlantic Canada, Poilievre currently enjoys a 20-point lead over Trudeau, with 48 per cent of respondents saying Poilievre would make the best prime minister.
The Liberals swept the Atlantic ridings on their way to forming a majority government in the 2015 election.
In Quebec, the lone province that sees Trudeau as the best bet for prime minister, he has 34 per cent support against Poilievre’s 23 per cent.
Time for a change at the top?
Trudeau has maintained that he plans on leading the Liberal Party into the next election, but a majority of respondents don’t think that’s a good idea.
Ipsos’ results suggest 60 per cent of Canadians think it’s time for Trudeau to step aside as leader and let someone else lead the Liberals into the next election. This is up from 54 per cent in a December 2022 poll.
Currently, the minority Liberals have a supply and confidence agreement with the NDP. That party has agreed to support the government on confidence matters until the next scheduled election in fall 2025.
In exchange, the Liberals agreed to advance key NDP priorities like dentalcare and pharmacare, with legislation expected on the latter by the end of the year.
However, 53 per cent of respondents say it’s time for the NDP to stop supporting the Liberals and trigger an election. The remainder believe the NDP should continue supporting the government and not force an election.
This poll was conducted between Sept. 15 and 18, with 1,500 respondents surveyed. Ipsos used population demographics to establish quotas to ensure the sample group was representative of Canada’s populations.
This poll is seen as accurate with +/- 2.9 per cent margin of error, 19 times out of 20.
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