With seven new ministers in cabinet, seven out and 23 cabinet members changing their jobs, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has hit the reset button on his inner circle.
We’re halfway through the government’s current mandate with key priorities already in the works. Trudeau’s team is facing multiple high-profile challenges, from the cost of living crisis to safeguarding elections from foreign interference.
After a near-total shuffling of ministerial roles, how much real change should Canadians expect to see?
Former clerk of the Privy Council Michael Wernick says a cabinet shuffle at this point is like handing off the baton in a relay race.
“A lot of it is just inherited and you carry on. So, you know, if you’re the heritage minister, you walk straight into the fight with Google and Facebook about online news,” he said.
He notes that key legislative priorities such as the controversial gun control bill C-21 have already become law, while programs like the much-touted $4 billion Housing Accelerator Fund are being implemented.
In his experience, some ministers will immediately adapt to their new roles — while others could flounder.
“I have seen ministers take to it very, very quickly and be very functional and effective within a matter of months. And some of them can be there for years and never really master, you know, the tradecraft.”
Wernick served in the federal public service for 38 years and has been in the cabinet room for parts of the Chretien, Martin and Harper governments, before serving as clerk from 2016-2019 in the Trudeau government.
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In that time, he’s seen many cabinet ministers come and go. He says while the agenda and tone of government is set by the Prime Minister’s Office, it does matter who is in cabinet as they will be the key team members giving input on the direction of government policy at the decision-making table.
“I think there’s a tendency to kind of write this off as shuffling the deck and they’re just a bunch of nobodies. But no, you know, all those people in opposition would love to be at the cabinet table. It matters who’s there and who isn’t,” Wernick said.
The Trudeau government will enter its eighth year in power come September. While Wednesday’s shuffle saw a lot movement, some experts don’t expect to see the same degree of change on the government’s overall direction.
“There’s a lot of central control around what happens and what the decisions are, and that doesn’t mean ministers don’t do anything,” said Lori Turnbull, director of Dalhousie University’s School of Public Policy.
“It just means if you’re talking about a direction of the government and the strategy and the plan and the priorities. You are not going to see a big shift in that if the prime minister and the finance minister are the same. You’re just not.”
Tyler Meredith, former economic adviser for Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, says that the shuffle sends a signal that the government is looking for a reset but that won’t truly happen without a new policy agenda.
“I think probably the most important thing that we saw yesterday was that there was a significant shift to be more proactive on housing and whether that’s just a communications exercise, we’ll see,” Meredith said.
Nova Scotia MP Sean Fraser was moved to the revamped housing and infrastructure portfolio in the cabinet shuffle from immigration where he was seen as a strong performer.
“I think the government knows that its key vulnerability, as it relates to affordability and especially as it relates to its understanding of the situation right now with Canadians, is around housing,” Meredith said.
Wernick adds it’s not uncommon to see a government look to refresh its front bench at this stage in the mandate, as burnout often develops at this stage in a government and the energy of newcomers can be beneficial for veterans.
With three outgoing ministers, Marco Mendicino, Mona Fortier and David Lametti, planning to seek re-election, Wernick says Trudeau should still keep them busy.
“Ex-ministers, if they aren’t given another assignment like chair of a parliamentary committee or head of some sort of exercise or role in the campaign, you know, are sort of loose free agents within the political system. And they’re always a headache for prime ministers,” Wernick said.
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