Tesla CEO Elon Musk says he did not speak directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin before tweeting out a Twitter poll with a highly criticized proposal for a “peace” plan for Russia and Ukraine, following a report from Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer that he had done so.
Musk’s poll last week suggested Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014, be formally handed over to Russia and that four other annexed regions — making up 15 per cent of Ukraine’s landmass — re-do a vote on whether to join Russia under United Nations supervision.
He also proposed Ukraine remain neutral, dropping its bid to join NATO, and that the water supply to Crimea be guaranteed.
In a newsletter sent to Eurasia Group subscribers, which was obtained by Global News after being first reported by Vice News, Bremmer detailed a conversation he said he held recently with Musk.
However, in a tweet responding to Vice News’ report on Tuesday, Musk denied the conversation occurred.
“I have spoken to Putin only once and that was about 18 months ago,” he wrote.
“The subject matter was space.”
Bremmer later stood by his account in his own series of tweets, saying Musk told him he had spoken with Putin and the Kremlin “directly” about Ukraine, and had shared what the Kremlin’s “red lines were” in the conflict.
“I have been writing my weekly newsletter on geopolitics for 24 yrs (sic),” Bremmer wrote. “I write honestly without fear or favor and this week’s update was no different.”
Bremmer added while he has “long admired” Musk as an entrepreneur, “he’s not a geopolitics expert.”
Musk himself responded to Bremmer’s tweet that “nobody should trust Bremmer.”
In his newsletter, Bremmer said he spoke with Musk “two weeks ago.” It was then that Bremmer said Musk told him that Putin, “in a direct conversation” with the Tesla CEO, said he was “‘prepared to negotiate.'”
But, Musk reportedly told Bremmer, Putin’s conditions were threefold: that Crimea be Russian territory with an assured water supply, that Ukraine accepts “a formal status of neutrality,” and that the annexation of the four regions of Ukraine — the result of what Western leaders called “sham” referendums — go ahead.
Those conditions were precisely what Musk laid out in his Twitter poll on Oct. 3.
“This is highly likely to be the outcome in the end – just a question of how many die before then,” Musk tweeted at the time.
During the conversation with Bremmer, Musk reportedly passed along that Putin plans to accomplish these goals “no matter what” and that the alternative would be “major escalation.”
If Ukraine retakes Crimea, Putin reportedly told Musk, Russia “would retaliate with a nuclear strike” on Ukraine.
“(Musk) said everything needed to be done to avoid that outcome,” Bremmer wrote.
Bremmer’s description of the conversation with Musk also raised concerns for the Eurasia Group founder about Putin’s influence over the Tesla CEO, with Musk reportedly sharing concerns about “more direct threats” from the Russian president.
“(While) he didn’t surface anything explicit with me, he did talk about (Russian) cyber capabilities and (Russia’s) potential to disrupt his satellites,” Bremmer wrote.
Bremmer said his own response was not to take Putin at face value, and that he believed there was “zero chance” Ukraine or Western countries would “go for” Moscow’s proposal.
While Bremmer said Musk seemed to consider this a “reasonable response,” Musk then went on to share Putin’s proposed points in the Twitter poll.
Bremmer expressed concerns in his newsletter about what Musk’s tweets, which he said included misinformation about Crimea’s history with Russia, could do to perceptions about the Russia-Ukraine war within the United States.
The United States, Bremmer explained, is “potentially divided” on the war in a way that Europeans aren’t — with the Trump-supporting wing of the Republican party expressing a desire to stop supporting Ukraine financially in this war.
“(Given) that (Elon Musk) now looks increasingly likely to buy twitter, at which point he’ll reinstate the former president, you’ll have those same views with (Trump) and his full political base behind it, potentially leading the (United States) to become fundamentally divided on the issue,” Bremmer wrote.
“This strikes me as a serious challenge for the alliance going forward, probably the most important thing that could fragment existing policies.”
At the time, Musk’s tweeted poll was immediately ridiculed by high-profile Ukrainians, including diplomats and politicians.
In a sarcastic response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a Twitter poll of his own asking “which Elon Musk do you like more?”: “One who supports Ukraine” or “One who supports Russia.”
Musk replied to Zelenskyy that “I still very much support Ukraine, but am convinced that massive escalation of the war will cause great harm to Ukraine and possibly the world.”
Andrij Melnyk, the outgoing Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, responded to Musk’s original tweet with a very direct comment.
“F— off is my very diplomatic reply to you @elonmusk,” he wrote.
The Kremlin itself chimed in, praising Musk for his proposal but warning that Russia will not backtrack on its move to absorb the Ukrainian regions.
“It’s very positive that such a person as Elon Musk is trying to look for a peaceful settlement,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Oct. 4.
But, “as for the referendums, people have voiced their opinion and there could be nothing else.”
Bremmer’s report of his conversation with Musk comes on the heels of a series of brutal Russian strikes launched on Ukraine Monday.
The strikes targeted downtown Kyiv, among other Ukrainian cities, and killed at least 14 people. Nearly 100 more were wounded, according to Ukraine’s Emergency Service.
The barrage destroyed critical infrastructure and residential areas alike.
Ukraine has been waging a successful counteroffensive against Russia since late August, forcing Moscow to pull back troops from some areas in a humiliating defeat.
Putin has claimed the strikes were in response to what he characterized as Ukraine’s “terrorist” action, which included an attack on a bridge to the Moscow-controlled Crimean Peninsula.
Zelenskyy said in a video address that the Russian strikes targeted civilian areas and energy facilities in 10 cities.
“(The Russians) chose such a time and such targets on purpose to inflict the most damage,” Zelenskyy said.
Global News has reached out to Elon Musk’s team for comment.
— With files from The Associated Press
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