Quebec Conservatives see rise in support among voters, poll suggests

With a provincial election on the horizon, François Legault‘s governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) remains popular with voters but a new poll suggests support is growing for the Conservative Party of Quebec.

A poll conducted by Mainstreet Research for Quebec Energy Producers shows that among decided voters, 36 per cent of them would cast their ballots for the CAQ if an election were held today, while 24 per cent would vote for the Conservatives.

Of about 1,162 people surveyed, 17 per cent would support left-leaning Québec solidaire. The Quebec Liberals — the official Opposition — fell right behind at 16 per cent. Meanwhile, only seven per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Parti Québécois.

“What we’re seeing now is continued growth of the Conservatives,” said Steven Pinkus, vice-president of Mainstreet Research for Quebec. “There’s a few reasons why we think that is happening primarily.

“I think there’s just general fatigue with governments all over the country — so it’s not that surprising. Two years of the pandemic will do that. Inflation will do that. Gas prices will do that.”

Éric Duhaime, leader of the Conservative Party of Quebec, said it marks the first time his party has placed second in the polls for voting intentions.

“It’s very good news for us,” Duhaime said, adding that his party has been working hard over the last year. “Now we’re seeing the results of our hard work, so it’s very encouraging.”

The party has one seat in the provincial legislature, which came after MNA Claire Samson was ejected from the CAQ caucus last June. She was booted after it was revealed she had donated to Duhaime’s party.

Duhaime, a former radio host, explained Monday that he thinks that Quebecers are gravitating toward the Conservatives’ “very different message” on a variety of issues — ranging from their push to lift COVID-19 restrictions to support for exploiting natural resources in the province like gas and oil.

“I think we have a very different position on many issues and it does resonate with Quebecers right now,” he said.

The poll comes as Quebecers feel the pinch at the gas pump after prices soared in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It was conducted from March 13 to 15 and sampled about 1,200 adults from across the province. The margin of error was ±3 percentage points.

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When asked about any potential selection bias since the research was commissioned by energy producers, Pinkus explained that the sampling is carried out “entirely randomly.”

“We do it by telephone and we do what’s called random digit dialling, where we don’t dial by name, we dial by phone numbers,” Pinkus said. “A lot of cell numbers are worked in there, so we don’t necessarily know a lot about the respondent before we start asking the questions.”

‘It’s one poll and it’s early’

Quebec Liberal Party Leader Dominique Anglade said her team is working to unite Quebecers, but that she’s confident her message will resonate with voters this fall.

“I understand that when you do negative politics and negative politics is going to give you more clicks,” she said, referring to Duhaime’s climb in the poll. “The question around the politics of division will not help us.”

The Liberals plan to “send a message that’s positive, that’s constructive,” she added. Anglade said she understands it might take “more time to reach people” but that’s where her party needs to go.

“We just need the time,” she said.

Despite a positive result for his party, Duhaime also said polls “don’t make an election,” which is still more than six months away.

“We have to still work very hard,” he said. “And make sure those people show up and that we get those votes on Oct. 3.”

Pinkus of Mainstream Research explained that despite the rise in support for the Conservatives, CAQ still maintains a lead and Legault’s party would still win an election based on those results. But a lot can happen in the upcoming months, he added.

“It’s one poll and it’s early,” he said.

— with files from The Canadian Press