British Columbia’s hospitals could find themselves overwhelmed by thousands of COVID-19 patients this month as the Omicron variant surges across the province, according to new modelling.
The projection comes from the independent BC COVID-19 modelling group, a team of epidemiology, math and data analytics experts from B.C. universities and the private sector.
The group’s latest report says that while there is evidence the variant is less severe and could lead to shorter stays in hospital, it is spreading so quickly — with infections doubling every 3.5 days — that B.C.’s hospitals will likely face a surge in patients unlike anything seen to date in the pandemic.
The model projects between 2,000 and 10,000 people in hospital at once at the peak in late January, depending on a range of factors.
“The 2,000 is pretty much if a lot of stars align and hospital stays are less (and) it’s less severe among the unvaccinated. Here in British Columbia, we expect a lot of the people needing hospitals to be unvaccinated. We saw that in other countries as well with Omicron,” UBC mathematical biologist and modelling group member Dr. Sarah Otto said.
“But even in the best case scenario, we’re still seeing four to five times more cases than we’ve seen so far in this pandemic and hospital.”
B.C.’s previous record for COVID hospitalizations, set last April, was 515.
Otto said the projection suggested the province would need to make use of all its surge beds and still expand hospital capacity, and that people would want to do everything possible to stay out of hospital unless absolutely necessary over the next month.
Despite the grim projections, she said there were also some hopeful aspects to the data.
“There’s a much lower need for supplemental oxygen, very few people are intubated and — we don’t have accurate estimates — but from what I’ve been reading around the globe, there aren’t high death rates,” Otto said.
“So it’s really about, can our hospitals stay open to protect and give the medicine and the oxygen that those who are really having respiratory crisis need over the next month?”
The report also takes aim at what it says are major gaps in data collection that have developed as B.C.’s testing system has been overwhelmed by the surge in cases delivered by Omicron.
The actual number of cases in B.C. remains unclear, with the province rationing PCR tests for seniors and at-risk groups, and the testing system itself operating at capacity.
The modelling group says the actual count could be 3.6 times higher than what the province has been reporting — a figure it arrived at by applying the trend line for cases among people older than 70, who are eligible for PCR tests, onto the general population.
“We basically said what if (cases among) under-70-year-olds were growing at the same rate as over-70-year-olds. And that’s where we’re estimating that, instead of 3,000 to 4,000 (cases per day), we’re more like 8,000 to 9,000 at the moment.”
Amid an overwhelmed testing system that makes daily case counts “almost useless for projections,” the report calls on B.C. to take steps to improve data collection.
It recommends officials publicly report the results of rapid antigen tests that are being distributed, attempt to track sick days among the workforce, and publicly report the results of wastewater testing capable of detecting viral RNA.
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