Hamilton’s medical officer of health told city councillors on Monday that public health is “cautiously optimistic” that the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has been averted.
Dr. Elizabeth Richardson said residents’ adherence to public health measures and increasing vaccination rates in August and September helped.
“However, COVID-19 is unlikely to disappear this year,” Richardson told members of the city’s board of health (BOH).
“Transmission risk continues to exist as we have increased indoor activities through the fall, coming in with the colder weather and, of course, further reopening being considered.”
During a presentation at the BOH, data suggested the peak of the fourth wave hit the city in the final two weeks in August with the 31st having the highest seven-day average number of cases with 80.
The return of students to city schools also had a negative impact on daily cases, with a steady increase through much of September peaking at about 11 school-related cases reported per day towards the end of the month.
Numbers have since subsided as of mid-October, with a current rate of only five school cases per day in the last few weeks.
Reported outbreaks also increased throughout the wave, reaching a peak near the end of September when public health was managing 25 active outbreaks and a combined 120 cases.
As of Friday, active outbreaks had dropped substantially to just seven involving 35 total cases.
“The number of cases linked to outbreaks remained relatively low throughout this wave,” epidemiologist Stephanie Hughes told councillors.
“The vast majority of wave four outbreaks had less than or equal to 10 cases per outbreak.”
Public health predicting about 50 COVID-19 cases per day until end of 2021
The latest COVID-19 projections to the end of 2021, according to Scarsin forecasting, suggest the city is likely to see as many as 50 COVID-19 cases a day.
Data suggests the worst-case scenario could be a peak of 100 cases per day or less than 30 in the best-case scenario, depending on adherence by the public to risk reduction measures like masking, distancing and avoiding contact.
With current measures in place, public health predicts another 3,000 COVID-19 cases are likely between now and the end of 2021, with more than 3,900 in a scenario where public health measures are reduced and vaccination levels lag.
“The cases will primarily occur in the younger age groups,” public health epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson said.
“Over half of the cases will be in those aged 20 to 59.”
Sanderson went on to tell the board that hospitalizations likely will remain at about two a day with current health measures, but balloon to four per day in a worst-case scenario.
Those aged 20 to 59 are most likely to be hospitalized, with older age groups likely to experience more severe outcomes should they contract the virus.
“The more severe outcomes of hospitalizations will likely disproportionately affect those 60 to 79,” said Sanderson.
The city anticipates 11 more deaths in the worst-case scenario, with over half coming from those aged 60-plus.
63 new COVID-19 cases over the weekend, 1 death
Hamilton public health reported a total of 63 new COVID-19 cases over the last three days and the city’s 417th virus-related death.
Public health does not reveal specifics on coronavirus-related deaths, but data released on Monday suggested a person in their 40s was the most recent casualty.
The city’s seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases remains at 23, the same as reported on Friday.
Active cases are up slightly over the weekend, moving to 181 from the 178 reported last Friday. More than 34 per cent of active cases involve residents under the age of 30 as of Oct. 18.
Three more outbreaks closed over the weekend – all at public schools. The largest of the three declared over was the surge at Tapleytown Elementary in Stoney Creek, which accounted for 13 total cases in an outbreak that lasted just under a month.
Of the four current outbreaks in Hamilton, two involve schools and a total of just four cases.
Public schools have had a combined 71 new COVID-19 cases over the last two weeks, with 65 involving students.
Another 3,003 COVID-19 vaccine doses went into arms over the weekend, according to public health data, with Friday having the most jabs (1304) administered.
Over the last week, the city’s clinics saw a drop of about 45 per cent in doses administered week over week, largely due to a lag during the Thanksgiving long weekend.
Last Monday, Thanksgiving Day, saw an 88.53 per cent drop compared with the same day the previous week.
Close to 80 per cent of the city’s eligible population over 12 years old have had two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, with 84.5 per cent having at least a single shot.
Second shots among all residents in Ontario are at 83.1 per cent as of Sunday, putting Hamilton behind 31 of the 34 public health units in the province.
The lowest of the two-dose rates is with those aged between 25 and 29 — only 68.3 per cent of those in that demographic have had two doses.
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