Hamilton reports 11 new COVID-19 cases, reveals worst and best case scenarios through July

Hamilton’s medical officer of health says the city is in the midst of a “nice” downward trend in new COVID-19 cases, but says there are still several unknowns as the pandemic continues through another spring.

Dr. Elizabeth Richardson told city councillors in a board of health meeting on Tuesday that as promising as the wave three numbers are, the growing Delta variant could hinder maintaining low case numbers and hospitalizations.

“It’s crucial, of course, as we go forward that as many people as possible are vaccinated with both first and second doses over the coming months,” Richardson said.

Based on the latest Scarsin forecasting — research developed through a partnership with Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS) and St. Joe’s — case loads in the worst case scenario could hit over 1,500 in a period between June 14 and July 31, with the best case scenario producing only 465 in the same timeframe.

2:49 Ontario’s top doctor comments on return of professional sports, entertainment venues amid COVID-19

• Ontario’s top doctor comments on return of professional sports, entertainment venues amid COVID-19
• Ontario reports 447 new COVID-19 cases, 4 deaths
• Ontario 2nd dose eligibility expands to residents of 7 Delta variant hotspots
• Could Ontario see a spike in COVID-19 cases after the first reopening weekend?

Previous Video

Next Video

The latest models assume the delta variant will dominate 78 to 92 per cent of all new infections and that those aged between 20 and 50-year old will represent the bulk of the cases in each scenario.

Richardson says the city’s per cent positivity rate, 5.3 as of Monday, has been dropping but is still of concern since it remains almost double the province’s average rate.

“This is a number which on the one hand means that the right people are going to get tested because they are people who do have COVID-19,” Richardson said.

“We still would like to see the overall proportion of those tests that are positive continue to decrease as we go forward.”

The city’s reproductive rate — the average number of people an infected person is passing COVID-19 on to — remains at 0.7 as of Monday.

Hamilton’s current seven-day average of COVID-19 cases dropped to 24 on Monday day over day from 28.

During a review of the third wave data from public health, the city’s case numbers are now in line with low numbers that were being recorded at the end of wave two.

So far in wave three, the city has had over 11,800 cases — greater than the total number of cases reported during wave one and wave two combined, according to public health.

City data also indicates that the 19 per cent who identify as racialized in the city accounted for more than 45 per cent of all COVID-19 cases in the latest wave, compared to the 81 per cent non-racialized in the community that accounted for just over 54 percent of cases.

Low income households also continue to be disproportionally affected by the pandemic with the estimated 18.9 per cent living in the city made up 25.6 per cent of the city’s cases.

Hamilton reported just 11 new COVID-19 cases on Monday, equaling a number last reported in mid-October.

The city’s active cases dropped for the 21st straight day from 262 on Sunday to 225 as of June 14.

More than 72 per cent of the city’s 225 active cases as of June 14 are among people under 50 with just over 21 per cent under 19.

There were no new reported outbreaks in the city on Monday while one at a workplace, VL Drywall Services, was declared over on Sunday. There were just three cases among staff reported during the outbreak which lasted 14 days,

Public health is reporting 10 total outbreaks across the city involving 40 total cases. Four of the outbreaks are in workplaces tied to 16 cases.

As of Sunday, 71.2 per cent of adults in Hamilton have had at least a single shot of a COVID-19 vaccine with at least 414,000 doses administered to date.

As of Monday, over 29 million COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered across Canada with 11.3 million in Ontario.

Canada is set to receive around 9.5 million COVID-19 vaccine doses this week with 7.1 million coming from Moderna and about 2.4 million doses due from Pfizer and BioNTech.