COVID-19: Rise of B.1.617 variant could mean trouble for B.C.’s reopening plan: expert

A British Columbia evolutionary biologist is warning that the rising prevalence of the new COVID-19 variant first identified in India could threaten to derail B.C.’s reopening plans.

Data released this week by the B.C. Centre for Disease Control showed that as of May 15, the B.1.617 variant accounted for seven per cent of cases in B.C., up from four per cent the week prior and two per cent the week before that.

The World Health Organization officially declared B.1617 as a “variant of global concern” earlier this month, and is being investigated as a contributor to India’s brutal surge of cases and deaths.

4:23 B.C. sees rise in cases of B.1.617 COVID-19 variant

“That type of doubling is definitely of concern,” Sally Otto, a UBC mathematical biologist and member of the B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group described, told Global News.

Otto said the variant has been spreading quickly in parts of the U.K. and Ontario, but noted that in the U.K. it appears to be affecting areas with younger populations that have seen lower vaccination rates.

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While the variant still makes up a smaller proportion of cases, it appears to be spreading more quickly than the other variants in B.C., Otto said.

Where that’s happening and who it is infecting will need to be monitored closely, she added.

“As case numbers come down of all the other variants including B.1.1.7, which was the main variant we were seeing before then we’re seeing the Indian variant B.1.617 just rising in numbers and becoming a larger and larger proportion of what we have here in British Columbia,” she said.

“So the real question is whether or not B.1.617 will spread among those individuals that are vaccinated. More likely it’s spreading among the half of our population that don’t have vaccines yet.”

The good news, Otto said, is that while the percentage has been doubling week to week, the actual number of cases has seen slower growth, from 300 to 378 to 541 over the same time period, Otto said.

Distribution of the variant across B.C. has also been unequal. According to the BC CDC report, it accounts for as many as 17 per cent of cases in the Vancouver Island Health region and nine per cent in the Fraser Health region. In Vancouver Coastal Health it makes up just two per cent of cases, and none in the Interior Health and Northern Health regions.

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The key question will be whether it starts to spread more broadly among populations and regions.

“That might mean we have to reverse our reopening plans,” Otto said.

But for the time being, she said the province’s phased approach to reopening, with an eye on case and variant trends, appears to be prudent.

“We’re riding this rollercoaster, and it feels terrible and we all want this rollercoaster ride to end,” she said.

“But I do think it makes sense for us to basically open as much as we can as long as case numbers and hospitalization rates stay down.”