B.C. won’t reach COVID-19 herd immunity under current vaccination plan: SFU researchers

New modelling data from Simon Fraser University researchers found that British Columbia won’t reach herd immunity for COVID-19 under current vaccination plans and the novel coronavirus and its variants may still spread once social distancing measures are relaxed.

The report calls for vaccinating children and youth as soon as it is safe to do so and encouraging vaccine acceptance among the entire adult population.

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“What we found is that if we vaccinate the number of people who say they’re going to want a vaccine now and we don’t vaccinate kids because right now they’re not approved, we’re not really in a position to just completely reopen and go completely back to normal because we’ve left too many people unprotected,” said Caroline Colijn, an infectious disease modeller and mathematics professor at SFU.

Colijn and colleague Paul Tupper ran a set of simulations that found about 51 per cent of the population will receive protection from the disease through B.C.’s current vaccination program, short of the estimated 60 per cent needed to reach herd immunity.

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Tupper and Colijn came to the 51 per cent number by calculating that adults make up 80 per cent of B.C.’s population, of whom about 80 per cent will get immunized. They estimated that vaccines will be around 80 per cent effective.

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The study includes several recommendations, including the need to “vaccinate children as soon as safely possible, starting with adolescents.”

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So far, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for use in children under 16 in Canada.

Last week, Health Canada said it is reviewing a submission from Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech to expand the use of their vaccine in people 12 years of age and older.

Colijn said the province needs to be ready for the logistics of immunizing children and youth if and when vaccines are approved for them.

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Right now the focus remains on getting COVID-19 vaccines to the large number of people who want them, she said. That will change as vaccine supply increases, then the focus will shift to people who have access to the vaccine but have chosen not to be immunized.

Colijn recommends greater outreach to encourage more adults to get vaccinated by highlighting how safe and effective vaccines are.

“They know that these vaccines are new technologies and know that they’re approved by Health Canada,” she said. “They maybe don’t know the rigour of all the things that are done to make sure that vaccines are safe.”

Another less palatable way to reach the 60-per -cent threshold is if 10 to 20 per cent of the population gets COVID-19 once the province’s vaccination program is over.

A third option is to maintain physical distancing guidelines as “substantially relaxing measures even after the vaccine rollout is complete will likely lead to rising cases, hospitalizations and deaths.”

Colijn said health officials need to be watchful of new variants of concern that could require booster shots and more social distancing.

“We need to figure out a plan for Canada not to have those come here, spread across the country and establish themselves,” she said.