John Horgan’s early election call gamble seems to be paying off, at least for now.
A new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News suggests the BC NDP has substantial leads in voter preference and leadership, and in every region in the province.
The NDP has an 18-point lead over the BC Liberals just one week into the campaign, the poll suggests.
The poll found 51 per cent of decided voters surveyed would be most likely to support or lean toward the New Democrats.
The BC Liberals are next at 33 per cent support, followed by the BC Greens at 12 per cent.
But the race is far from over. The results exclude the 31 per cent of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.
“The good news for the BC Liberals and Greens is that there are more undecided voters available this election compared to the start of the 2017 campaign, 31 per cent today versus 23 per cent in the first poll of the 2017 campaign,” Ipsos Public Affairs senior vice president Kyle Braid said in a statement.
The NDP leads by a wide margin across all age groups, according to the poll, including by 18 points among traditionally higher turnout older voters. The NDP is getting the support of 52 per cent of those polled, compared to 34 per cent for the Liberals, among respondents aged 55 years and older.
The NDP have a 25-point lead among women, with 53 per cent supporting the NDP compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals.
In terms of who would be the best premier, Horgan was the choice for 44 per cent of voters who responded to the poll. Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson was chosen by 14 per cent of people surveyed, and new Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau is the choice of six per cent.
There does not seem to be a huge groundswell of anger towards the NDP over the decision to call an early election. The poll suggests 46 per cent of British Columbians disapprove of the early call, while 32 per cent approve the decision.
The top issue in the election is COVID-19, according to the poll, with 30 per cent of voters mentioning it as a crucial issue. Ipsos found 45 per cent of voters believe Horgan is the best leader to deal with the issue, while 14 per cent said Wilkinson and seven per cent said Furstenau. A little over one third, 35 per cent, had no opinion.
“British Columbians care about a wide variety of different issues in this provincial election. Coronavirus/COVID-19 is at the top of the list but is still only mentioned by three-in-ten (30 per cent) residents,” Braid said.
“Other important issues include cost of living/affordability (24 per cent), jobs and the economy (19 per cent), health care (19 per cent) and housing affordability/availability (17 per cent).”
The NDP is leading in every region of the province. The party has a large 26-point lead on Vancouver Island and a 23-point lead in Metro Vancouver, the poll suggests.
In Metro Vancouver, 55 per cent of voters prefer the NDP over 32 per cent of voters preferring the BC Liberals.
Things are much closer in the Southern Interior and North regions, where the NDP has only a 5-point lead.
The Green Party does best on Vancouver Island at 20 per cent support.
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll of 1,251 British Columbians conducted September 24 to 28, 2020. The poll was conducted on behalf of Global BC and CKNW using a blended methodology, including 1,001 online interviews via the Ipsos I-Say Panel and 250 telephone interviews (live interviews, mix of landline and cell). The precision of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll is accurate to within +/ – 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. Some of the questions were asked only of online respondents. The result for these questions is accurate to within +/ – 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled.