Premier Jason Kenney said that Alberta Health Services’ projections forecast roughly 250 people in Alberta will need beds in intensive care units (ICU) by April 22 due to COVID-19.
These figures, which Kenney released during Wednesday night’s emergency debate, are the first time modelling data from AHS has been made public.
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During the debate, Kenney said April 22 is three weeks in advance of the projected peak of hospitalizations from COVID-19.
He also said there are plans to have 925 ventilators and 1,200 ICU beds available by the end of the month.
The premier said AHS has freed up 1,300 acute care beds to date and is on track to make 2,250 beds available for COVID-19 patients by April 22.
“They would continue to see more beds available throughout late April and into the month of May.
“We’ll be releasing those details. The current plan is to release all those details early next week. AHS is just constantly refining their modelling,” Kenney said.
Kenney said the modelling also includes a negative scenario with a sudden, vertical growth in infections and hospitalizations.
He said AHS is working on backup facilities in the event of a negative scenario, however he said that scenario would only become real if there were a rate of infection significantly higher than what the province is currently seeing.
“We are confident that we will be capable to cope with the peak of hospitalizations,” Kenney said.
“Albertans can be confident the measures that we are taking are reducing the spread of the disease,” said Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, on March 27 when asked about B.C.’s modelling that showed measures there have halved the spread of the virus.
READ MORE: B.C. ‘cautiously optimistic’ about COVID-19 forecast, but warns hospitals could still be overwhelmed
“All of the modelling is taking the pieces of data we know and making projections… It’s not a guarantee that is what will happen in the future. It’s the best estimate with known data.”
On Wednesday, AHS vice-president Dr. Mark Joffe said that the province has a three- to four-months’ supply of equipment for front-line workers.
Kenney said Wednesday night the province has ordered an additional 2 million N95 masks from an overseas supplier.