The leader of New Brunswick’s Liberal party says he will not immediately try to form government should his party sweep a pair of yet-to-be-scheduled byelections.
Premier Blaine Higgs has until March 10 to set dates for byelections in Shediac Bay-Dieppe and St. Croix but has said he’s in no rush to do so because losing both seats could mean losing hold on power.
But Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers says his party would not look to immediately bring down the government and would respect the result of the 2018 election that saw the Progressive Conservatives win 22 seats and the Liberals win 21.
“I believe New Brunswickers have spoken just a little over a year ago and have rendered a minority government. I believe it’s incumbent upon the Liberal party and the parties of the house to do their level best to work together,” he said.
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Shediac Bay-Dieppe is the seat previously held by former premier Brian Gallant and is widely considered one of the safest Liberal seats in the province. Vickers has confirmed he will be on the ballot in Shediac Bay-Dieppe when the time comes.
St. Croix, however, has traditionally leaned PC and was held by former federal cabinet minister Greg Thompson, who passed away over the summer.
If the Liberals were to win both byelections, and speaker Daniel Guitard was to step down from his non-partisan post to rejoin the ranks of Liberal MLAs, the party would hold the most seats in the Legislature.
That would force one of the other parties to put up a candidate for speaker. If none did, an election would follow, but if a new speaker was selected, the Liberals would be able to bring down the government and potentially hold the confidence of the house with the support of the Green Party or the People’s Alliance.
‘Listen to the vote of the last provincial election’
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But Vickers says he would not ask Guitard to resign and would allow Higgs the chance to continue governing.
“I think it’s really important for all parties to listen to the vote of the last provincial election which rendered a minority government and as best as possible to work in a collaborative manner to serve New Brunswickers well,” Vickers said.
Political scientist JP Lewis says that what may outwardly appear to be an overly cautious approach from the Liberal leader could really be a recognition of what is likely to happen were the party to sweep both seats.
If the PCs were to lose their advantage in the seat count, what happens next would likely be up to the province’s new Lt.-Gov. Brenda Murphy.
“If the Liberals win both seats and they have the numbers to bring down the government and the government loses a confidence vote, the premier would go to the lieutenant governor and then it would be up to her to either dissolve the legislature which would lead us to an election or ask someone else to form a government,” Lewis said.
“Of course, within our system … she could say you won’t get an election, I want someone else to try and form government but he could be thinking simply that’s not going to happen.”
Higgs has said previously that a Liberal win in St. Croix would likely cause him to ask for a general election to avoid the possibility of the Liberals seizing power.
An example from recent history suggests that public opinion of a change in government without a general election is less than positive.
In 2008, the federal Liberal and NDP parties were in talks to force a vote of no confidence in order to bring down and replace prime minister Stephen Harper’s minority government. Harper ultimately convinced the governor-general to prorogue Parliament, staving off the challenge from opposition parties, which many began to see as an undemocratic challenge to the Harper-led government.
“Most New Brunswickers, most Canadians, think that when you have a change of government you need an election,” Lewis said.
“[Vickers] may worry that a change of government, a change of premier in the short-term would not be politically beneficial to the Liberals.”
READ MORE: New Brunswick premier says he’ll wait until March to set date for byelections
According to Lewis, another possibility is that Vickers is looking to influence the conversation around the byelections and counter the rhetoric of Higgs, who has stoked fears that the Liberals could end up in power if they are successful in both byelections.
“Higgs has already gotten ahead, framing what these byelections are about,” Lewis said.
“With these comments, it looks like he’s taking some of the pressure off in terms of how dramatic the outcome could be if both seats went Liberal.”
Vickers, while calling for a collaborative approach to government, says he will not extend a blank cheque to Higgs.
He says should the government try to advance policies counter to Liberal priorities he would be forced to try and bring down the government. One such line in the sand would be large-scale changes to the French immersion system being looked at by Education Minister Dominic Cardy.
Alliance Leader Kris Austin initially suggested the changes could amount to the program being scrapped, a possibility the Liberals see as untenable.
“Should legislation be introduced or things take place that are contrary to the values of our party or we feel that are not for the good of New Brunswick, we would obviously take steps to ensure our government or the government in place stays true to our values and the good of New Brunswickers,” Vickers said.
‘All I can do is lead my party’
When asked in what areas he sees potential for cross-aisle collaboration, Vickers mentioned municipal reform but says he has yet to see an appetite for cooperation from the government.
“I have been the leader of the party since April 24. I have never received a phone call or an invitation from the premier to discuss any topic or matter,” Vickers said.
“All I can do is lead my party, lead the Liberal party and make sure we do our best as an official Opposition, which has a duty to oppose, but still ensuring New Brunswickers receive responsible government.”
At this point, only the People’s Alliance has a candidate for St. Croix, former teacher at the Maritime College of Forest Technology Rod Cumberland. Cumberland alleges he was fired from the college for his outspoken opposition to glyphosate spraying, a key issue for the Alliance.
Former journalist Kathy Bockus is expected to be acclaimed as the PC candidate at a nominating convention in St. Stephen on Saturday.
Karen Ludwig, who served as the MP for the area for a term before losing her seat to Conservative challenger John Williamson, has said she will seek the Liberal nomination, but the party has yet to open its formal nomination process.
The Greens are currently accepting applications, but no one has publicly announced their intention to run as of yet.
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