The latest Ipsos poll for Global News shows significant movement in the Ontario election campaign. While the Progressive Conservatives are down a bit at 36 per cent, the NDP 37 per cent has surged at the expense of the incumbent Liberals (23 per cent).
While it’s too early to say that Liberal support is in free fall, things are not looking good for Ontario Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne.
What’s going on? It’s simple. There are two broad voting coalitions in Ontario. One is conservative, the other is progressive.
The conservative coalition supports one political party — the Progressive Conservatives. The progressive coalition has two main parties to choose from — the Liberals and the NDP. The two coalitions are different sizes. The conservative coalition, at its very best, is about 40 to 45 per cent of the electorate. The progressive coalition, which is larger, is 55 to 60 per cent.
WATCH: Angie Seth talks to Darrell Bricker about alleged data breaches, resignations, and the desire among voters for change as the Liberals continue to lose ground and the PC’s and NDP move up in the polls.
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The conservative coalition does well when the progressive coalition splits its vote between the Liberals and NDP. But, if the progressive vote unites behind a single option, it is tough for the Progressive Conservatives to beat.
The coalitions aren’t hard and fast, and there can be some movement between them. For example, some conservatives can get fed up with their usual party and vote for the Liberals, as they did in the last provincial election for Wynne. And, some Liberal voters can go to the PCs if they don’t like what’s on offer from either progressive party. But, most of the switching going on now is between the Liberals and the NDP.
What’s happened since the start of the campaign is that progressive voters have begun to abandon the Liberal Party to unite behind the NDP. Why? Because they see Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford as a threat to the future of Ontario and they want to vote for the party that has the best chance of stopping him.
Thirty-six percent of Ontarians say that the NDP is best positioned to stop Ford and the PCs. This is up 11 points over the last week. Additionally, we’ve seen a big jump in support for Andrea Horwath as “Best Premier.” She’s now at 47 per cent (up 9 per cent), while Ford is at 36 per cent (steady), and Wynne is at 18 per cent (steady). Experience shows that incumbent premiers have an advantage on this question, which is why these results are so disappointing for Premier Wynne.
WATCH ABOVE: Ontario election will likely be decided in area Doug Ford is leading
So, where are we in the campaign today? The PCs have locked in a potential winning coalition. Their numbers aren’t moving, and they are at least tied in the region (GTA) that has the most seats.
While the Tories are still in the driver’s seat, the steering wheel is now wobbling. One advantage the PCs have in this situation is that their coalition consists of motivated, habitual voters who are likely to show up on election day. Their big reason for voting PC? They want to make sure that Premier Wynne is not reelected. Anger is their biggest motivator. And, angry voters vote.
The NDP now has momentum over the Liberals and has caught up to the PCs in our polling. It is consolidating the progressive coalition that does not want Ford to be premier. It does have a potential problem, though. The demographic profile of its voters (younger, less affluent, less educated Ontarians), suggests there could be an issue with getting them to show up election day.
This is exactly what happened with the NDP in British Columbia a couple of elections ago. Even though the polls and pundits had the NDP winning, it didn’t get the vote out and lost to the Liberals.
What about the Wynne Liberals? As former U.S. Presidential candidate Pat Buchanan once described another floundering political party, they are in “deep, deep shape.” In most elections, a clever strategist can find a path to victory for each competitor in the polling data. It’s difficult to see that path for the Wynne Liberals right now.
Eighty per cent don’t want to see them reelected (the highest I’ve ever seen on this question), only 20 per cent have a favourable impression of the premier, and there’s no issue that’s important to voters that the Liberals lead on. This means they can’t highlight their record, they can’t feature their Leader, and there’s no obvious issue for them to put in the window.
All the Liberals can do now is hope that their opponents stumble badly enough to allow them to get back into the race. But, they are running out of time, and are reliant on something happening that they have no control over.
Darrell Bricker is CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.
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