If Ontario’s election was held today, Doug Ford‘s PCs would have a razor-thin majority, the NDP would form the opposition with 54 seats and the Liberals would be all but obliterated, a simulation created by Global News suggests.
Our simulation:
- Took vote totals at the poll level in Ontario’s 2014 election, and placed them all in the new set of ridings Ontario will use on June 7
- Applied the change in vote share between the 2014 election and an Ipsos poll released Monday which showed the PCs and NDP tied and the Liberals well in third place.
Under this simulation, the PCs win 64 seats, the NDP 54 and the Liberals just six. 63 seats are needed for a majority.
In the simulation, Premier Kathleen Wynne would lose her own seat. The Liberals’ small caucus would have two seats from central Toronto, one each in North York, Vaughan and Mississauga, and one in Ottawa.
The NDP sweeps Northern Ontario, and solidifies its base in industrial southern Ontario, winning seats in Windsor, Sarnia, London, Brantford, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, Niagara, Brampton, lakeshore Toronto, Oshawa and Kingston. It would also pick up Ottawa Centre, one of the NDP’s few winnable seats in eastern Ontario.
The PCs, on the other hand, win by taking basically everything in between.
(An exercise of this kind misses a lot of detail that matters in the real world, since it doesn’t catch local and regional dynamics which matter in elections. Candidates are treated as generic and interchangeable. Etobicoke North appears as an NDP win, for example, ignoring the fact that the Ford family’s base in municipal politics in the area is likely to translate into provincial votes for the PCs.)
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A poll released last week showed the PCs with a stronger lead, at 40 per cent. In a simulation based on that poll, the PCs had a six-seat majority. Here’s what that map looked like.
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