Bus rapid transit operating cost breakdown by mayoral hopeful draws councillor’s criticism

Once bus rapid transit is up and running, how much is it going to cost Londoners?

Paul Paolatto, a man who will be throwing his hat into the upcoming mayoral race, says it’ll be too much.

In a post to his website Monday, Paolatto digs into the numbers and determines Londoners can expect property taxes to increase by 4.6 per cent alone, assuming the project is both on time and on budget.

“Throw in some additional risks like construction costs, development charges that don’t manifest themselves, or ridership projections that don’t manifest themselves, and suddenly the tax increase associated with this project… could climb to six, seven, eight, nine, 10 per cent,” he said.

Speaking with 980 CFPL’s the Craig Needles Show, Paolatto admitted it was hard to uncover the numbers from the available information, inviting anyone from the city or from the Shift team to correct him.

And that’s just what Coun. Jesse Helmer did.

“Paul’s number around 4.6 per cent increases in property taxes is not accurate. It won’t be anywhere near that, it’ll be much much less than that,” explained Helmer.

The net operating cost of the system from 2019 to 2035 — the half that isn’t covered by transit fares — is going to go from $42 million to $59.4 million, he said.

That’s an increase of $17 million, explained Helmer. And it doesn’t even come close to Paolatto’s 4.6 per cent increase estimate, which represents an increase of $26-million based on current property taxes, he said.

On top of that, Helmer pointed out the transit system’s operating costs do not stem exclusively from property taxes: it’s split between property taxes, assessment growth, and provincial gas tax funding.

“Provincial gas tax funding in 2021 is going to double. We’re right now getting around $10 million from the provincial gas tax, and it’s going to go up to 20. And with inflation, by the time of 2035, it’s probably going to be in the neighbourhood of $23 million.”

Helmer said that will cover a substantial chunk of the increase in operating costs for both rapid transit and the regular transit service.

“I’m really glad that Paul is digging into the numbers and looking at it, but it is important to be accurate, and unfortunately, he could have checked these numbers with anybody at the transit commission or the shift team… to see if this is right.”

Numbers aside, Paolatto tells 980 CFPL he’s working on his own alternative plan to bus rapid transit which he says is “much more honest, a little bit more measured, something that reflects all of the transportation modes.”

And he’s not working on it alone.

“This is not just Paul Paolatto off on the side of his desk working on this plan. I’ve brought in some expertise that I think makes better sense.”