Quality not quantity important to third party success: STU Political Scientist

Eight months out from the next provincial election, and the two main parties have announced a large portion of who will represent them on ballots, while other smaller parties lag behind.

The Elections New Brunswick website lists 28 candidates for the Liberal Party and 20 for the PCs out of the 49 ridings that will be contested.

The Green Party, which won its first seat in the legislative assembly in 2014, isn’t far behind the government and official opposition with 17 candidates announced.

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Those who don’t currently have legislative representation are further behind in the process though, as the People’s Alliance is listed as having eight announced candidates while the NDP and Keep It Simple Solutions Party each have yet to formally confirm any candidates.

Though it may look like the larger parties are more prepared than the smaller ones, the current situation might not be exactly as it seems.

“Some of the smaller parties like the Greens or the NDP, where you’ve got an opportunity to win a handful of seats, maybe not form the government, they’re probably best to get their ducks in a row in the ridings where they see an opportunity that they can win or break through,” said Jamie Gillies, an assistant professor at St. Thomas University in Fredericton.

“My guess is that with some of these parties, they’re trying very hard to recruit good candidates in the key ridings, and then as we get closer to the election, they will fill the other constituencies they haven’t filled with candidates they need,” Gillies said.

Tweet This Click to share quote on Twitter: "My guess is that with some of these parties, they're trying very hard to recruit good candidates in the key ridings, and then as we get closer to the election, they will fill the other constituencies they haven't filled with candidates they need," Gillies said.

Gillies references increased the Green Party presence in PEI and B.C. in discussing the possibility leader David Coon could be joined by a party member or members in the legislative assembly this fall, though he indicates their success will depend greatly on a well-run, strategic campaign.

“I anticipate that the Green Party strength in New Brunswick will hold and might increase,” he said.

“It depends on how they run the campaign and which candidates they have in particular areas of the province that could find the Green message powerful.”

Tweet This Click to share quote on Twitter: "It depends on how they run the campaign and which candidates they have in particular areas of the province that could find the Green message powerful."

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Aside from the legislature’s only third party, Gillies says more change could be seen if the other smaller parties pick up steam heading into the campaign.

“The NDP have a new leader and the People’s Alliance have a leader who’s very popular in his riding and he nearly won last time,” he explained. “I anticipate that third parties should do pretty well in this next provincial election.”

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