A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll released Friday predicts Don Iveson will “cruise to a win” and be re-elected mayor of Edmonton on Monday.
“Don Iveson will be easily re-elected mayor of Edmonton on Oct. 16. His popularity has been consistently strong with increasing approvals that Mainstreet has tracked since his election in 2013,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.62 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Mainstreet surveyed a stratified random sample of 800 Edmontonians between Oct. 10 and 11. Respondents were eligible voters and reached by landline and cellphones.
“While Don Iveson faces little opposition, Naheed Nenshi is fighting for his life down in Calgary.”
The Calgary-focused poll finds Bill Smith well positioned to beat Nenshi with a 13-point lead in decided and leaning voters.
The poll as a margin of error of +/- 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Mainstreet surveyed a stratified random sample of 1,500 Calgarians between Oct. 10 and 11. Respondents were eligible voters and reached by landline and cellphones.
“What was once thought to be a sleepy election for Naheed Nenshi has turned into a nightmare,” said Maggi said. “This is one of the most vicious and negative campaigns I have ever witnessed. Front-runner Bill Smith and incumbent Nenshi campaigns have both been plagued by self-inflicted wounds in the closing weeks.”
The survey found the most likely mayoral candidate to come in second place behind Iveson was the man who suggested revisiting the smoking bylaw.
“Of all the contenders on the ballot it looks like Don Koziak might do best,” Maggi said.
“Though, given the margin of error and the low levels of support for non-Iveson candidates, it’s not easy to predict who will come in second.”
Mainstreet found that while Edmonton voters seem to be in agreement on the mayoral race, they’re split down the middle when it comes to one hot-button issue: photo radar.
“Forty per cent approve of a plan to cancel photo radar while 38 per cent disapprove,” Maggi said. “Women are less likely than men to want to pull the plug on photo radar.”
The poll also asked Edmontonians about the contentious topic of bike lanes.
“We found strong opposition, with over half (55 per cent) opposed,” Maggi said.
“It’s worth remembering that the cost of bike lanes is generally low, particularly when compared to the infrastructure costs associated with cars. Despite their low cost, bike lanes have become a hot button issue in major cities.”