The deadly blast that ripped through a St. Petersburg subway tunnel Monday could prompt the Russian government to tighten its controls over the population, according to one expert.
At least 11 people were killed and dozens more wounded. Reports said the blast may have been caused by an explosive device hidden in a briefcase; a second bomb at another subway station was deactivated.
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It was not clear in the hours after the bombing who was responsible, but that won’t necessarily stop the Kremlin from imposing restriction in the aftermath said Aurel Braun, associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies.
“I think one of the big questions here is not just who perpetrated this and what was the purpose, but what will be the reaction,” said Braun.
There have been a number of deadly attacks in Russia over the years: A 2010 Moscow Metro bombing killed more than 30, the Beslan school siege in 2004 left nearly 400 dead, and the 2002 Moscow theatre siege that killed at least 170.
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Vladimir Putin began serving his first term as president in 2000.
“Every time there was an attack, whatever the cause was, the Putin government took political advantage of it,” said Braun. “They made sure that they strengthened the hold that they had on government.
“They made certain that Putin emerged with greater powers, that his position was enhanced. He appeared to be the strong decisive leader who can take care of the people.”
Putin was in St. Petersburg at the time of the bombing. Also coinciding with the bombing: recent wide-spread protests in Russia against corruption.
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“These kind of protests always shake the Kremlin because they don’t like any manifestation of dissent,” said Braun.
Putin could use the bombing as a reason to perhaps expand monitoring of civilians or to restrict public demonstrations, Braun said. After all, Russian law already allows officials to sanction or ban demonstrations.
“They could say that protests inside Russia encouraged this kind of action. They can manipulate this to their advantage,” Braun suggested.
Following the bombing, Putin said he had been in contact with the country’s intelligence officials and the Federal Security Service.
“Law enforcement bodies and special services are working and will do all they can in order to find out the cause of what’s happened, to give full assessment of what’s happened,” Putin said.
Piotr Dutkiewicz, professor of political science at Carleton University dismissed the idea that the attack will prompt a crackdown by Russian authorities on anti-corruption protests.
“This is about terrorism, and about the threat that we’ve been talking about for a long time … part of the global attempt to destabilize,” said Dutkiewicz.
Russia’s involvement in Syria has made it “enemy number one of ISIS,” Dutkiewicz. There have also been ongoing concerns that Russians who went to Syria to fight would return to the country radicalized. Russia, along with the rest of the world, has already been in a heightened state of security.
The St. Petersburg attack might actually nudge Russia closer to other world powers in the fight against terrorism, Dutkiewicz suggested.
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“This is the bridge, this is the link. We are all vulnerable in that fight. So that would be logical, despite the differences — this will link Russia with the West,” said Dutkiewicz.
The difficult first step will be breaking through the shared lack of trust between Russia and Western nations, said Dutkiewicz.
“Russia will be trying — despite sanctions, despite many concerns about Russia in the West — they will try to build an anti-terrorist coalition and that would be the offer to countries like the U.S., to Mr. Trump: Let’s do it together because separately we are losing the battle. That will be the message,” said Dutkiewicz.
— With a file from the Associated Press
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