Reality Check: Vote recounts leading to Clinton upset ‘extremely unlikely’

Despite a push in recent days to force a recount in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania due to suspicion the polls may have been hacked, the chances of a recount prompting a dramatic reversal of fortunes for Hillary Clinton are extremely unlikely.

The Electoral College hasn’t technically given Donald Trump the win yet, said Michael Traugott, research professor in the Center for Political Studies at the University of Michigan, that happens on Dec. 19. A dramatic result in the vote recount could change history.

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But the chances of a President Clinton, despite a popular vote lead of 2.1 million over Trump, are slim-to-none.

“I think it’s extremely unlikely,” Traugott said. “I don’t think that there’s a very high probability of there really being a recount.”

Tweet This Click to share quote on Twitter: "I think it's extremely unlikely," Traugott said. "I don't think that there's a very high probability of there really being a recount."

Buzz of a recount picked up steam Thursday on news that independent candidate Jill Stein had collected over $3 million through an online fundraiser to pay for the recounts. Stein’s fundraising page estimates the cost for recounts in the three states will cost $6 to $7 million.

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Stein has since notified Wisconsin of her intentions to pay for a recount in the state.

‘Likely Statewide Recount for President of the United States’

In anticipation of Stein filing for a recount before Friday’s deadline, a notice has been sent to Wisconsin counties asking for an estimated cost to perform a recount.

Wisconsin already performs random voting equipment audits after elections – a process which is currently underway in the state.

There are two main types of voting equipment used in the U.S.: A paper ballot that is marked and fed into a machine and an electronic system which uses a touchscreen or button on a computer that automatically tabulates results.

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How a recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania could happen

Should the recount go forward, it would start with just a sample of votes.

“They’re going to be searching for differences in the hand tabulations of the ballots, and what the readers said,” Traugott explained.

“If they begin to detect discrepancies, especially if they’re systematic, then they’ll go in and count every single ballot.”

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The suspicion was prompted, in part, by a group of computer scientists and lawyers who contact the Clinton camp over concerns that results in the states may have been hacked or manipulated, New York magazine reported Tuesday.

The group presented findings showing that in Wisconsin, Clinton received seven per cent fewer votes in counties that used electronic voting machines, when compared to counties using paper ballots.

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“There’s a theory underlying the call for the recount which is that there was a possibility that at the time the software was loaded on the readers, before election day — that part could have been hacked,” Traugott said.

But even the experts aren’t sure. One of the driving forces behind that group, Alex Halderman, cautioned that the hacking allegations were only a concern.

In an article posted on Medium on Wednesday, Halderman stressed that the group has no evidence of a cyberattack or voting irregularities. He urged that a recount be ordered just to eliminate the possibility.

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“The only way to know whether a cyberattack changed the result is to closely examine the available physical evidence — paper ballots and voting equipment in critical states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania,” Halderman wrote.

Global News has reached out to Halderman for further comment, but did not hear back by time of publication.

A final nail in the recounts coffin, Traugott noted, is that the votes aren’t even really that close between Trump and Clinton, anyway.

Clinton has 10,707 fewer votes than Trump in Michigan, 22,525 fewer votes than Trump in Wisconsin, and 70,010 fewer votes than Trump in Pennsylvania.

With files from The Associated Press