Anyone who seriously thought the B.C. government was going to increase the carbon tax in the near future simply hasn’t been paying attention or else doesn’t grasp the many nuances that go into political decision making.
Last week, Premier Christy Clark announced the carbon tax would be frozen at its current rate of $30 per tonne of emissions, despite the advice of a government-appointed panel that it should increase steadily and reach $160 per tonne by 2030.
As expected, that decision was condemned by various environmental activist organizations as short-sighted and a failure, but boosting the tax at this time was simply never in the cards, so matter how many times those panel members called for such an action.
First of all, an election looms just nine months from now. Any increase in such a tax would bound to have negative repercussions on various business and industries, and potentially slow down the biggest thing B.C. has going for it compared to the rest of the country: the provincial economy and job creation.
Fighting climate change is a laudable goal of course, but it’s also one that will run smack into the reality of electoral politics on a regular basis. And government of all political stripes will the action that best provides their continued existence, even if it means enraging environmental activists.
As well, Clark herself has made it fairly clear since she became premier that she doesn’t share the same zeal her predecessor, Gordon Campbell, had when it comes to the climate change file. So her government is doing relatively minor things — such as increasing the number of electric vehicles — instead of the big, bold things that could have unintended consequences.
Clark is very much focused on the economy and job creation (and now too on housing affordability) and is unlikely to shift her government’s energy into other issues before the next vote.
As well, the federal government is contemplating the creation of a federal carbon tax, so it hardly makes sense for B.C. to move on its own tax without seeing what Ottawa has planned.
Interestingly, a new poll by the Innovative Research Group shows why the B.C. Liberals are not in any rush to thrust the environment and climate change into the forefront of its campaign platform (something the NDP is more likely to do).
The poll shows the B.C. Liberals have a healthy lead in the decided vote over the NDP (38 per cent to 29 per cent), which suggests a significant chunk of the electorate likes what the government is doing and isn’t impressed by what the NDP is offering.
So a big shift in direction on something like the carbon tax is not only a gamble on its economic impact, but it would be a dumb political move as well.
The poll shows that when respondents were asked what they favoured most — environmental protection versus keeping the cost of living down and creating jobs — the economy-linked issues came out decidedly on top (53 per cent to 42 per cent). The gap was even more pronounced among those likely to vote for the B.C. Liberals.
The poll also showed that, by a very wide margin, housing affordability is the dominant issue on the minds of the electorate. The environment and climate change rank well back in comparison (in fact, housing affordability beats all other issues by at least a 2-1 margin).
And this will partly explain why this fall you can expect to hear a lot of stuff being announced by the provincial government that is tied to increasing the supply of housing in Metro Vancouver. Now that the NDP has created the stage for housing to become a hot political issue, look for the B.C. Liberals to take over that stage and elbow their opponents of it.
That’s the benefit of being in government: a political party can actually handle the levers of power which to actual outcomes, rather than rhetorical arguments and attacks that Opposition parties are confined to.
But talk about fighting climate change and boosting taxes to do it? The B.C. Liberals won’t be doing much of that. They’re quite willing to leave that one to the NDP.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC. This is reprinted from his weekly column with Glacier Media.
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