It would have been unheard of mere months ago, but there’s a chance a new political triumvirate is emerging to dominate the energy policies for this country.
The troika may soon consist of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Alberta Premier Rachel Notley and B.C. Premier Christy Clark.
To say it’s an example of politics making strange bedfellows doesn’t quite capture this group. It features a left-of-centre federal Liberal, a left-wing government that tilts right in Alberta and a coalition B.C. government that alternates between liberal and conservative traits in this province.
Whether these three actually form a common front remains to be seen, but it appears the groundwork is being laid to accomplish just that.
B.C. and Alberta are now in exploratory talks that may eventually provide a linkage between the sale of B.C.’s green hydroelectric sales to Alberta to oil pipelines running from Alberta through this province to tidewater. It’s early days on this complex file, so who knows where this headed.
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But it’s important to remember that Notley — or any Alberta political leader for that matter — desperately needs at least one more pipeline leaving her province. The oil sands development is critical to that province’s economic future.
The federal NDP’s decision to bring the far-left, anti-oil Leap Manifesto into the party for some kind of debate has cast Notley adrift from her traditional political allies, and she’s looking for new ones.
And Clark, as I’ve noted before, would love to see a twinning of the Kinder Morgan pipeline proceed if the five conditions for approval set down several years ago are met. Selling B.C. Hydro power to Alberta as a form of quid pro quo would presumably meet one of them: the requirement that a “fair share” of the economic benefits of the project will come to this province.
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There is a misconception in some quarters (largely residing outside of B.C.) that the five conditions were set by the B.C. government as sure-fire barriers to ensure the Kinder Morgan pipeline is never built. Quite the opposite in fact: they are designed to require the company to meet tests at both the environmental and First Nations levels.
Enter the Prime Minister.
If Trudeau ‘s government green lights the Kinder Morgan pipeline, he may then be pressured to meet what could be the lone remaining condition required by B.C.: a “world class” marine oil spill capability has to be in place, and that is largely a federal responsibility.
NDP Leap Manifesto naïve, ill-considered, tone-deaf: Notley
The other conditions, if you recall, are successfully getting the project through the environmental review process, establishing “world class” spill response capability on land (the B.C. government is drafting legislation creating a potential blue print for achieving that), and ensuring that aboriginal rights have been accommodated.
Another potential layer to the energy file would be added if the Trudeau government approves LNG projects, particularly the Pacific Northwest LNG project near Prince Rupert. If that approval leads to the project actually going ahead — which remains a big if — it would cement ties between the federal government and the B.C. government like few issues ever have before.
Just a few years ago, Trudeau wasn’t taken seriously as prime minister material. Clark appeared destined to be thrown onto the political scrap heap, and the notion that Notley would become the premier of Alberta was laughable.
But all three have emerged as leaders, and circumstances may push them together to deal with one of the most pressing and challenging issues — energy — facing the country. It’s safe to say few folks saw this one coming.
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Two well-liked and well-respected MLAs — the NDP’s Kathy Corrigan, who represents Burnaby-Deer Lake, and B.C. Liberal Don McCrae, who represents Campbell River — have announced they won’t be seeking re-election next spring.
There will be plenty more joining them in leaving the political arena. I suspect at least a half-dozen MLAs from both major parties won’t be running again (probably a few more New Democrats than B.C. Liberals this time around, as the government side went through a major revamping of its caucus relatively recently in the 2013 election).
Politics is a tough business, and don’t begrudge any of those leaving for choosing to do something else with their lives.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC
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