Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s busy visit to China last week resulted in a long list of pacts and agreements between the two countries, but none will be the answer to Canada’s troubles, according to a prominent intelligence analyst.
“I would think this was a useful trip, but not the solution to Canada’s problems,” said George Friedman, founder and CEO of Stratfor, a U.S.-based private intelligence company.
Harper has been focussed on tightening relations with China for some time — especially since U.S. President Barack Obama delayed any decision on allowing Canada to transport its oil through the country.
One of the deals signed last week signalled an agreement for Canada and China to cooperate on energy interests.
China is the largest energy consumer in the world, and has increasing investments in Canadian oil and gas industries.
But painting the United States as an unreliable customer of Canada’s natural resources, and instead turning to China for long-term deals isn’t necessarily in the country’s best interest, Friedman said.
“The problem is Canada is assuming the Chinese economy will continue to grow massively rather than contract,” he said in an interview on The West Block with Tom Clark. “The idea that China is a stable, long-term partner for the consumption of energy assumes that Europe and the United States are going to be long-term customers to the Chinese and not turn to… others for cheap products.”
China is an exporting country, Friedman said, which forces the country to be dependent on foreign customers in order to maintain its economy.
The analyst painted a picture of the global economy, depicting Europe heading into a recession, growth in the United States, and labour costs in China that currently exceed those in Mexico.
“So the Chinese are being pressed on all sides,” he said. “China is always going to be a great power. It’s always going to be a good customer. But the idea that it is going to solve Canada’s problems, I think, is kind of short-sighted.”
The United States remains one of Canada’s best allies and customers with the most potential — even if the relationship is sometimes rocky, Friedman said.
Living next door to an economy that’s worth nearly $15 trillion, is growing and has a massive appetite for energy shouldn’t be lost on Canada’s policy makers, he said.
“You always have problems with the United States. That’s the nature of the relationship,” he said. “But in the end, you always solve them and you’ll sell your energy to the United States one way or another.”
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