Three months remain until a petition’s deadline on Alberta separation, but a recent poll shows support for the province leaving Canada appears not to have budged much.
New polling conducted last week by the Angus Reid Institute of 979 Albertans found just 29 per cent would vote to separate from Canada. Of that group, only eight per cent — 80 people — said they would definitely vote to leave, while 21 per cent leaned that way.
Meanwhile, 57 per cent said they’d definitely vote to stay, while 81 people, or eight per cent, said they’re leaning towards staying.
Among United Conservative Party voters specifically, the numbers reverse. Asked how they’d vote, 57 per cent of UCP voters say they would leave while 38 per cent said they would support staying a part of Canada.
“Maybe for many it will be like a relief that the numbers are not increasing, but it’s also kind of worrisome in some aspects because there’s still some bunch of populations that they say are interested in separation,” said Carlos Friere-Gibb, assistant professor at MacEwan University’s School of Business.
The numbers aren’t much of a change from polling conducted by Ipsos as part of its Confederation Stress Test in early January.
Ipsos found that of 500 Albertans, about 29 per cent said they’d vote for their province to begin the separation process. Yet after considering potential downsides, such as standard of living declines or pension losses, just 15 to 16 per cent maintained their support.
Angus Reid also looked at what it called “common arguments” for staying or leaving Canada and asked each group of Albertans if they found them “convincing or not.”
Among those who said they’d definitely vote to stay, 555 people — 93 per cent — agreed that Alberta would struggle as a landlocked country to sell its resources globally. Eighty-eight per cent also said they agree their own financial prospects would be harmed by independence.
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Few in that same group agreed with the arguments to leave, though 28 per cent did find the argument that Alberta gives more to Canada than it gets from being a part of it convincing.
About 78 per cent of those who lean towards voting to leave say they believe their financial prospects would improve with Albertan independence. As well, 95 per cent of the 209 Albertans say they agree with the argument that the province would control its own resources.
Less than 20 per cent of that same group agree with the arguments to stay, though 16 per cent — the highest number — did find that the argument that an independent Alberta would be more economically unstable was convincing.
There is also concern about where each camp is getting its information, with 70 per cent of those voting to stay getting information from mainstream media and 45 per cent from social media. Half of those who would vote to leave say their information comes from what Angus Reid calls “alternative media sources,” and 45 per cent say it comes from family and friends.
According to Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University, this could put the pro-separation campaign at higher risk of exposure to disinformation and foreign interference.
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“It’s already happening,” Bratt said. “I’ve been making the case that there’s already American interference, and that’s going to continue.
“There are alternative media sources that are private companies. How many subscriptions, how much money are they getting from outside of Canada? We simply don’t know.”
Opponents of Alberta separation have been vocal in recent months, with the Alberta Chambers of Commerce denouncing the prospect as bad for business and claiming it’s driving away investment.
Several First Nations in Alberta have also criticized the movement, with a trio applying for a judicial review last month of the decision by Elections Alberta to approve a petition on the province’s separation.
The petition has received support, though, with a group called Stay Free Alberta touting the crowd that showed up for a meeting on the proposal in Red Deer and other communities in recent weeks.
The group did not provide journalists with the number of people they have gotten to sign the petition in Red Deer, though they said they were confident it would get enough by the legislated deadline.
To be successful, they need to collect about 177,000 signatures by May 2, of which 10 per cent must be eligible voters from the last provincial election. The signatures then must be validated by the province’s chief electoral officer before the petition can be presented to the Alberta government.
If Albertans did vote to leave Canada, Angus Reid asked the 638 people who would vote to stay how they would respond. Seventy-three per cent said they’d move to another province or territory in Canada, while 23 per cent would stay and three per cent would leave the country altogether.
Former deputy Alberta premier Thomas Lukaszuk is trying to prevent people from having to leave, with his Forever Canadian petition aiming to make it official policy for the province to stay in Canada.
The Forever Canadian successfully approved by Elections Alberta after approximately 438,000 signatures were collected.
Angus Reid Institute polled a randomized sample of 979 Canadian adults who live in Alberta using an online survey from Feb. 2 to 6, 2026. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- three percentage points. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by Angus Reid.
—with files from Global News’ Heather Yourex-West
I wish the media would stop engaging with these treasonous individuals. As most polls have shown, the majority of Albertans are growing tired of the UCP policies and DO NOT want this. The rest can pack their things and leave this beautiful country.
As for the question of separation, the answer is easy, all those who want to separate can just move south to Texas or Florida just separate your self from our wonderful country. Your problem solved.
D. Rockburn/toronto
Wait, what am I saying? I had no clue it was going up. 30% is probably more like 45-50%. We have a problem here people. We lose Alberta and we lose everything. All that wealth and $$$ from them that keeps the country afloat. We need people working on this that aren’t complete mo rons like myself.
Awww the poor treasonous separatists are only polling 3 out of 10 in Alberta. Seriously these people are the definition of losers in every sense of the word. Too funny
Don’t you all love how I call other people trolls when that’s all I’ve done on this site for ages? I’m a bitter old mad, probably time for MAID. I live in Duncan, nobody will notice.
Unfortunately for you, troll, there is no cure for your problem except a double lobotomy. You’re just too twisted and depraved for any other type of treatment.
Trust me, I’m a washed up/fake/wannabe ex-lawyer who never passed the bar.
And check out my gonorrhea while you’re at it.
You can trust me. I was a failed/washed out lawyer.
That being said, I’m a bit of a moron in most things, especially math.
I’m looking for someone with a big yet gentle c o ck to settle my nerves and fill my rear. Please let me know if you or a friend are up to the task and are in the Duncan, BC area.
Facts matter. Check yours.
Whining paranoia is soooo unbecoming (and infantile).
8% is NOT three in ten. Click bait headline.
“3 in 10 in favor” the line ups tell an entirely different story, but it fits the narrative I guess. The more it gets downplayed, and always seems to be in the news now, tells me that the other provinces and federal government are afraid of it actually happening. Anyone who is in a toxic relationship wants out, and that’s why Alberta wants out, has we are in a very toxic relationship with Ottawa.
Too much spam and trolling. But it’s all still here.
Man Albertans feel hopeless for the future with a federal government that doesn’t value the west and the contributions from its land and people.
The argument against recourses being landlocked in an independent Alberta means very little when the federal government already dictates what Alberta is allowed to do.
Ottawa is not worried when Albertan voters do not directly determine whether they’ll have a job in the next election, and so a forced vote on independence is last resort.
The funny thing is that this entire movement could have been squashed with actual pipeline progress to support the industry that dominates Canadian exports.
Whats happening with the comment section?