A pair of energy forecasts released Tuesday see lacklustre crude oil prices continuing this year amid a global supply glut and natural gas prices picking up steam as more Canadian shipments make their way to Asia.
Consulting firm Deloitte expects West Texas Intermediate, the key U.S. light oil benchmark, to average US$58 per barrel — about where it’s trading at currently.
That’s about 20 per cent lower than it was at this time last year and roughly 12 per cent below the commodity’s 2025 average.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has deferred some production increases, but “we do feel there’s a little more downward pressure that could come into prices in 2026,” said Deloitte Canada partner Andrew Botterill.
The forecast doesn’t account for the U.S. raid on Venezuela over the weekend in which President Nicolas Maduro was captured.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he wants American energy majors to take control of Venezuela’s oil assets.
The South American country has massive oil reserves with a similar chemical makeup to Alberta’s oilsands crude and refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast are well suited to handle that type of oil.
A lifting of U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan crude and a ramp up of production could pose a competitive threat to Canadian supplies in the Gulf Coast market.
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Botterill sees two different scenarios potentially playing out.
“The turmoil of Venezuela itself may bolster some prices in the short term,” he said.
“But on the flip side, we still are in a dramatically oversupplied system right now. So I don’t think (companies) will have a lot of short-term effects.
“But it’s certainly something that Canadian producers especially will be looking at into the mid- and long-term to understand some of their investments.”
Analysts at ATB Capital Markets, meanwhile, are expecting a WTI price of US$60 a barrel this year.
Global oversupply should peak in the first quarter of this year, gradually improving to a much tighter market in 2027 and 2028 as U.S. shale producers burn through their top-performing wells.
That should bode well for Canadian producers with long-life, quality assets.
With the startup of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to the West Coast in 2024, the price gap between heavy oilsands crude and WTI has “structurally evolved,” as the ability to sell the resource in Asia has meant better returns for Alberta producers, the report said.
“Egress capacity out of the (Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin) is not expected to be an issue over the next few years,” the ATB analysts wrote.
The risk of Venezuelan barrels re-entering the U.S. market in meaningful amounts had been a risk percolating in the background prior to Maduro’s capture, said Patrick O’Rourke, managing director of equity research at ATB.
Currently, Venezuela produces about a million barrels a day of oil and China is its biggest export customer.
“There’s a lot of runway before you see significant volume growth there,” O’Rourke said of the time and investment needed.
“The risk is that maybe those barrels come into the Gulf market that are going to China today at a price that undercuts Canadian barrels.”
For natural gas, ATB is expecting Alberta prices to strengthen to $3.30 per mmBTU this year from roughly $1.70 last year thanks in large part to the ongoing ramp up of the LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat, B.C.
The first cargoes left the plant last summer for Asia, but outbound volumes have been choppy until recently, O’Rourke said.
“We haven’t really quite yet realized the full impact of LNG Canada,” he said.
“We’re hoping to see more consistent operations, more gas moving west.”
Deloitte expects natural gas prices in Alberta to rise to $2.95 per mmBTU this year.
“That’s just on the back of a far more balanced Canadian system,” Botterill said.
Botterill said demand from energy-hungry artificial intelligence data centres isn’t being reflected in pricing yet, but it’s something he’s watching closely.
“It’s a good news story for natural gas as a product, and there’s definitely going to be more demand.”
NOTE: This is a corrected story — an earlier version said Deloitte was expecting natural gas prices in Alberta to rise to $2.95 per mmBTU next year.
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