Saudi oil giant Aramco, a longtime cash cow for the kingdom, expects oil demand to remain resilient this year and sees further upside if the U.S. and China successfully resolve their trade dispute.
Washington and Beijing agreed to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs earlier on Monday, in a deal that surpassed expectations as the world’s two biggest economies seek to end a damaging trade war that has stoked fears of recession and roiled financial markets.
“We expect demand will continue to be steady and growing compared to 2024, and if the whole issue around tariffs is resolved — that also will add to additional demand that will be seen from the market,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said in a post-earnings conference call on Monday.
Aramco, the world’s top oil exporter, reported a 4.6% drop in first-quarter profit on Sunday due to lower sales and higher operating costs as economic uncertainty hit crude markets.
Global oil prices rose about 2 per cent in early trading on Monday following the latest tariff news.
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Saudi Arabia has been investing heavily in recent years to diversify its economy beyond oil as part of its Vision 2030 agenda.
But with oil prices lower and costs rising, some of the kingdom’s more ambitious projects, including a planned futuristic city in the desert, have been scaled back to focus on completing infrastructure needed for global sporting events, sources told Reuters in November.
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A survey of 40 economists and analysts polled by Reuters in late April projected Brent crude to average $68.98 a barrel in 2025, down from March’s estimate of $72.94.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ group of producers will accelerate oil output hikes and could bring back to the market as much as 2.2 million barrels per day by November, sources told Reuters earlier this month.
The group surprised markets in April by agreeing to a larger-than-expected output hike for May, despite weak prices and slowing demand.
Saudi Aramco said the additional production could add potentially $1.9 billion in annual operating cash flow.
Executives also said that despite the impact of tariffs and market uncertainty, the company has seen resilient growth so far in the second quarter of 2025.
“Currently, it is premature to assess the full impact of trade negotiations, as there are many moving parts,” Nasser said, but added that Aramco is well positioned thanks to its healthy financial position and flexible capital.
Slumping oil prices are also threatening to create huge problems for the Alberta provincial budget which relies heavily on oil revenues.
This year’s budget was already forecast to include a deficit of $5.2 billion with the price of oil at $68 per barrel – and industry experts estimate every $1 decline in that price could increase the deficit by an additional $750 million.
With files from Global News.
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