Foreign interference inquiry turns focus to ‘present and the future’ of threats

The next stage of the federal foreign interference inquiry will shift focus to what meddling hostile states are likely to try in Canada’s upcoming elections — and what can be done to thwart it.

Justice Marie-Josée Hogue said Monday that the latest round of hearings will focus more on “the present and the future” of foreign interference in Canadian elections rather than on what happened in the 2019 and 2021 general elections or on naming parliamentarians who allegedly colluded with countries such as China, India or Russia.

“Essentially, we will be examining the current capacity of government departments (and) agencies … to combat foreign interference, and how their ability to do so has evolved over time,” Hogue said as the inquiry resumed public hearings.

“However, some of the issues raised in the first round of hearings will be explored in greater depth in this next round.”

Anyone hoping Hogue would name names of those MPs and political players suspected of participating in foreign interference schemes, however, will be disappointed.

The Québec appeals court justice made clear, both in a press release last week and in her opening statement on Monday, that it is not her role to identify individual bad actors.

In June, the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP) revealed that an unknown number of Canadian politicians knowingly worked with foreign states to interfere in the country’s democratic process. That same month, the House of Commons voted to have Hogue investigate those allegations.

“I will not be publicly identifying Parliamentarians who NSICOP … suspects of having participated in foreign interference activities, or of having acted wittingly or unwittingly as agents of foreign states,” Hogue said.

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Hogue said Canada is governed by the rule of law, which includes the rights of individuals to defend themselves against charges or accusations.

“In the present case, the allegations are based on classified information, which means the commission can neither make them public nor even disclose them to the persons who might be the subject of these allegations,” Hogue said.

May 2024 polling from Ipsos found that half of Canadians (52 per cent) believed that foreign governments have attempted to significantly interfere in recent elections, although 37 per cent of respondents believed the allegations were overblown. A strong minority, 44 per cent, said they had faith the Hogue inquiry would get to the bottom of the issue.

Houge’s inquiry was prompted by political pressure that began in November 2022 after Global News  — citing unnamed sources as well as internal government documents — detailed allegations of foreign interference in Canada’s 2019 and 2021 general elections.

In her preliminary report, released in May, Hogue concluded that while there were attempts by foreign governments to influence both campaigns, the overall integrity of the elections was not impacted. Canadians decided the results of both elections, despite attempts to interfere.

However, Hogue concluded that a handful of candidates in the 2019 federal election “appeared willing” to go along with foreign interference schemes. Her preliminary report suggested as many as 11 candidates and 13 political staffers — knowingly or unknowingly — had “direct connection” to affiliates of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

“Interference occurred in the last two general elections, and indeed continues to occur frequently. It is likely to increase and have negative consequences for our democracy unless vigorous measures are taken to detect and better counter it,” Hogue wrote in her May report.

“In my view, the events named in this report likely diminished the ability of some voters to cast an informed vote, thereby tainting the process.”

Despite that “tainted” process, Hogue nevertheless concluded that the 2019 and 2021 results were legitimate and not influenced by a foreign power. But her preliminary report detailed some troubling allegations.

Those include a proxy of the Indian government attempting to clandestinely provide financial support to candidates in 2021; $250,000 in funds suspected for foreign interference operations transferred to PRC-associated “threat actors” in 2018-19; and that Canadian intelligence believes Beijing likely manipulated the Liberal nomination contest in Don Valley North ahead of the 2019 election.

The Chinese government, by a considerable margin, was the largest perpetrator of foreign interference operations in Canada, according to Hogue’s findings. Beijing is largely party-agnostic, however, favouring candidates from any party who are perceived to support the Chinese regime.

While the Chinese government may be the principal “threat actor,” other countries’ governments — including India, Iran, and Russia — have all been publicly accused of running influence operations on Canadian soil.

The latest stage of Hogue’s inquiry is expected to run a full month and will hear from top security and intelligence officials, senior bureaucrats, political staff and politicians, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.