Monday marks exactly two months until British Columbia’s provincial election, and while the official campaign hasn’t begun parties are already making their pitch to voters.
“We are in the pre-election period, there is no question about it,” NDP Leader David Eby said Monday, as he campaigned with Oak Bay-Gordon Head candidate Diana Gibson.
And with health care, affordability and housing shaping up to be among the key issues, the verbal sparring has already begun.
“You think things are expensive now just wait until the costs the Conservatives will impose on them, I look forward to the debate,” Eby said.
This will be the first election as party leader for Eby, Conservative Leader John Rustad and BC United Leader Kevin Falcon.
Recent polling has the NDP in first place, with the Conservatives within striking distance in second and BC United and the BC Greens a distant third.
Rustad has been making his case that the Conservatives are the only option to unseat the governing New Democrats — while targeting largely the same issues on the doorstep.
It doesn’t matter if it’s the Lower Mainland or if it’s the Northeast, or if it’s the Okanagan, or if it’s the Island. These issues are the same – affordability is a real problem for people. Housing is a huge problem. Health care is a huge problem,” he said.
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“A third of people are thinking about leaving. Half of young people. To me, this is what I am hearing over and over again.”
UBC political scientist Stewart Prest said that while incumbent parties typically have an advantage at the polls, the NDP is facing the same headwinds as governments around the world in a post-COVID world and in the aftermath of inflation and high interest rates.
“In elections like this, the incumbent can expect a rough ride. People have a certain amount of frustration over the last number of years, and a lot of that is among younger voters, the voters who feel sort of left aside or overlooked by the system,” he said.
The NDP’s challenge, Prest said, will be to make a strong case to voters about why they deserve another term. He said that will involve painting a clear contrast to their competition while showing how they’ll deliver on the core issues. Eby, meanwhile, will need to connect emotionally with voters who have yet to see him head the party on the campaign trail.
The key to victory for the Conservatives, Stewart said, will be to keep the focus on the government and its perceived shortcomings while tapping into the frustrations British Columbians are currently feeling.
At the same time, Rustad will need to manage the tension within his own party between a more socially conservative and populist base with voters in the centre it will need to court to win. That tension could also manifest between the base and some of its new candidates who defected from the centre-right BC United.
“He does have to find ways to have multiple conversations simultaneously with these different groups of voters and effectively to in a sense defy gravity in speaking two different languages at the same time,” Prest said.
BC United, which currently serves as the official opposition but has faded in the polls, faces the toughest battle, Prest said.
“It’s hard to see a path back for BC United … The support just isn’t there anymore,” he said.
“Something has to change. Not that it’s impossible for BC United to make their way back, but effectively they are looking for someone in front of them to stumble.”
BC United Leader Kevin Falcon has pushed back on the accuracy of polling two months out from the vote, and recently proposed a major income tax cut in a bid to shake up the race.
British Columbians will vote under an expanded electoral map this year with 93 ridings — six more than in the 2020 provincial election.
So far, the Conservatives are leading the recruitment effort, with candidates confirmed in 81 of those ridings.
The NDP has recruited 74 candidates, BC United 57, and the BC Greens just 21.
The New Democrats, however, continue to lead on the fundraising front, having raised $2.2 million between April and June. The Conservatives raised $1.1 million in that same period, compared to $627,000 for BC United and $334,000 for the Greens.
The official campaign period will kick off on Sept. 21, with election day on Oct. 19.
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