A renowned Canadian scientist is warning that the devastation in Jasper is sign of what’s to come as extreme heat continue to plague the planet.
John Pomeroy is the Alberta-based director of Global Water Futures at the University of Saskatchewan. He says all the conditions were right for Jasper to go up in flames — extreme heat and exceedingly low soil moisture, the same conditions that have lead to infernos in Fort McMurray, Kelowna and Lytton and in the Shuswap region.
In the past week, Earth’s record for the hottest day was broken twice. July 21 was declared the planet’s hottest day since records began. Then, on Monday, the record was broken again.
“You sort of wonder, what does the hottest day on the planet look like? I think the burning of Jasper is maybe emblematic of what that is,” Pomeroy said on Saturday from his home in Canmore.
He said other parts of the perfect storm are the overly-mature forest and the swaths of dead lodgepole pine ravaged by the mountain pine beetle, which has survived warming winters.
“Mountain pine beetle hit the park hard in the last 14 years. It was made worse by warmer winters and that’s a climate change impact,” Pomeroy said.
Scientists have observed soot and ash from the forest fires that have been darkening the glaciers in Jasper and Banff national parks, leading to the accelerating melt rate. Pomeroy was at the Bow Glacier above Bow Lake on July 23.
“It was hard to distinguish the ice from the rock around it. Parts of it looked black with deposits of soot and ash and algae. I don’t think Peyto Glacier will make it through this decade. The Athabasca will make it a few more decades,” Pomeroy said.
Pomeroy says it’s all connected: glacier retreat, wildfires, drought and water supply problems.
“It’s all the same thing. It’s how we manage the land, but it’s also extreme heat we’re dealing with in summers now,” Pomeroy said.
He said scientists have been warning for years about the need to remove carbon from the atmosphere, noting it may take a national treasure left in ruins for citizens and government to connect the dots.
“People wonder, what does it mean if we don’t? This fire in Jasper shows us what it means. It’s awful and it’s intolerable. This is like being in a war now,” Pomeroy said.
Pomeroy said the North Saskatchewan and Athabasca River flows have been above normal because of excessive glacier melt.
When he was at the Athabasca Glacier Station on July 16, he recorded that the ice depth sensor was four metres up in the air due to ice melt of 3.3 metres since Sept. 15, 2023
He says the melt on the Athabasca has been between 70 and 80 cm per week in the heat.
“It’s not record for this time, but it’s very, very high,” Pomeroy said.