More needs to be done to maintain North American relations in an increasingly competitive and volatile world, attendees at the U.S.-Canada Summit in Toronto heard on Tuesday.
Canada needs to do more to lay groundwork today to avoid being surprised again on trade agreement talks, said Darryl White, chief executive of BMO, which co-hosted the conference with Eurasia Group.
“It’s fair to say that business communities and the public were caught pretty much off guard when NAFTA was revisited,” said White.
“We need to be more ready this time.”
He said Canadians don’t understand the level of opposition there was in the U.S. to the agreement, and that it’s crucial to widen support for the trade relation.
“Private and public-sector leaders must ensure that Main Street benefits of deeper partnerships in an increasingly complex world are well understood.”
U.S. ambassador to Canada David Cohen went some way to assure attendees that there’s no seismic shift approaching as the North American trade agreement comes up for renewal in 2026.
“It’s not a renegotiation,” said Cohen.
“It’s a review … there is no interest in the United States in renegotiating.”
There is concern those expectations could shift notably if Donald Trump is elected, but Cohen said that there are institutional forces that don’t change with a single election that should help maintain some stability.
Trade agreements also have to be adapted to make sure they’re doing enough for workers, said Elizabeth Baltzan, a senior advisor to the U.S. Trade Representative.
She said that the globalization trend of simply removing trade barriers has shown its limitations, and there’s more need to factor in geopolitical and market concentration risks, as seen with China’s manufacturing dominance.
“As we look at how trade policy is changing, we owe it to democracies, to our people, to make sure that the policies are responsive to our lived experiences.”
It’s important for Canada, the U.S. and Mexico to figure out together on how to respond to non-market policies and non-democratic countries, she said.
“We didn’t really take those risks fully into account, so now we’ve got to have a trade policy that is responsive to those challenges.”
But as Canada looks ahead to potential trade talks, limited defence spending could be an issue, especially if Trump is elected, said several panellists.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly looked to assure those gathered that Canada has heard criticism and plans to ramp up spending.
“Canadians are now understanding that the world has changed and we need to invest more in defence.”
In April, the federal government announced spending plans that would get spending towards 1.76 per cent of GDP by the end of the decade, though still short of the two per cent NATO commitment.
While the ongoing shortfall is source of tension with some U.S. politicians, Joly said Canada is aiming to ramp up spending further.
“I’m convinced that we can be on a path to two per cent,” she said.
The importance of defence spending comes as the world faces conflicts on several fronts, said Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group.
“We are in a materially more dangerous place than we were a year ago.”
He said that given the uncertainty in the world, it’s all the more important to maintain relations between Canada and the U.S.
“This relationship is no longer just nice to have, it’s increasingly strategically essential.”
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