Canada’s fertility rate has hit its lowest level in recorded history

The Canadian fertility rate has hit its lowest level since Statistics Canada began collecting data more than a century ago.

The agency released its most recent numbers Wednesday, showing the birth rate fell to 1.33 children per woman in 2022, well below the replacement level of around 2.1.

This is a national trajectory with record lows in nearly every province and territories. Quebec and Nova Scotia were the exceptions, says Statistics Canada.

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“Canada seems to be moving into this club of nations with birth rates that could be characterized as ‘ultra-low,’” Don Kerr, a demographics professor at King’s College, Western University in London, Ont., said in an interview earlier this month.

While birth rates have been steadily declining for more than a decade, the pace accelerated “at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic,” according to Statistics Canada.

Its report ‘Fertility in Canada 1921 to 2022’ says Canada, like other countries, is riding the “fertility ‘pandemic rollercoaster’” with more families putting off having children.

“Given the COVID-19 pandemic initiated a period of public health crisis, as well as economic and societal shocks, it is possible that a segment of the population responded to this period of widespread uncertainty via their childbearing choices,” it reads.

Kerr says prolonged economic uncertainty may be dragging Canada’s low birth rates down even further.

“It’s been tight for a lot of people. Inflation certainly hasn’t helped. For some couples, looking at their paycheques, looking at their expenses, they’re saying ‘maybe now is not an ideal time to have kids.’”

The average age of mothers at childbirth was 31.6 in Canada and 34.4 for fathers.

The demography professor says there are notable regional differences, with the country’s largest cities seeing even lower levels than the national average.

He points to Vancouver, where the birth rate is 1.1 children per woman.

“I’d assume that the cost of housing is relevant there,” adds Kerr.

Every G7 country experienced a dip in fertility rates between 2021 and 2022, except for the United States.

Canada saw one of the largest percentage drops (-9.7 per cent) after South Korea, which experienced the steepest (-15.3 per cent).

That country is in the midst of a demographic crisis. The South Korean population is shrinking; its fertility rate is 0.78 children per woman, the lowest in the world.

Even France, which seemed to be an outlier in the West with higher-than-average birth rates, is experiencing a similar challenge.

Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron promised to increase parental leave pay to encourage the French to have more children, after birth rates plummeted to their lowest point since the end of the Second World War.

It’s a tale of two demographic shifts in Canada. The country is seeing record low birth rates, and historically high immigration.

“We’ve relied increasingly upon immigration in maintaining population growth,” said Kerr. “That’s the logic behind much of the immigration policy from the federal government.”

Canada’s population surpassed 40 million last year, growing at the fastest pace since the 1950s. But the record growth has been tied to a national housing crisis and increased pressure on the health care system.

“Immigration certainly helps if you’re talking about an aging population. But if our birth rate continues this downward trajectory, our population will be aging at an accelerated pace.”

Kerry says both Canadian-born adults and new Canadians are having fewer children.

“Regardless of how fast our population grows, our family networks are getting smaller and smaller and this over the long term can be quite dramatic,” he added.

“If you don’t have kids around, if you don’t have grandchildren, there are going to be consequences, because people rely upon family.”