Less than one-quarter of Albertans support proceeding to a binding vote on separation, but support for the other nine questions on Monday’s referendum may be higher, a new survey shows.
An Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News suggests seven in 10 Albertans say they plan to vote for Alberta to remain a province of Canada in the upcoming referendum, holding steady from previous polling conducted in September.
The proportion of voters who said they would vote for Alberta to begin the legal process of holding a binding referendum vote on separation increased three percentage points from September to 23 per cent.
That support is highest among men (27 per cent), those aged 35 to 54 (27 per cent) and those living outside Calgary and Edmonton (29 per cent).
“We’re seeing only about a quarter of people in Alberta saying they give support for this, but there’s a fair amount of diversity in the opinions among the people that we interviewed depending on where they lived and what their demographic background is,” Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada, told Global News.
Ipsos conducted online interviews with 801 Albertans between Oct. 13 and 16.
Only five per cent of voters remain undecided and two per cent say they will not vote, but Bricker said even if all of those respondents ultimately voted yes on referendum day, it would not be enough to trigger a separation vote.
“Whether or not it is only a quarter of the population that decide that they’re going to vote yes. Still not a small number. That’s a pretty big number,” Bricker said.
Premier Danielle Smith has said that if voting goes the way polling suggests, she expects everyone to accept it and move on. Leaders of the independence movement contest that.
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But the premier has also asked Albertans to vote yes to the first nine questions, saying it would give her more leverage to negotiate for the province with the federal government.
“What we’re seeing is that the status quo relationship with the rest of the country is not something that’s particularly popular in Alberta at the moment,” Bricker said. “They don’t see the solution to that status quo situation as being separating from the country. But I expect that some of those other questions might get themselves majorities on election night.”
The first nine questions are related to immigration and the constitution.
A previous poll conducted for Global News in September found a strong majority (76 per cent) of Albertans were aware there were several questions in the upcoming referendum. Eighty-one per cent of Albertans said they planned to vote in the referendum with 62 per cent saying they will vote on all 10 questions.
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How do I watch the results?
Global News will have in-depth team coverage on both broadcast and streaming online.
Anchors Dallas Flexhaug and Carole Anne Devaney will be joined by veteran political reporter and Ottawa bureau chief David Akin for results analysis, along with insights from a political panel hosted by anchor Blake Lough, and reporters on the ground.
From 8 p.m. MT to midnight, our Decision Alberta Referendum 2026 coverage will air on Globalnews.ca, as well as on YouTube and our Global TV app that is available on streaming services Prime Video, Apple TV, Roku, and select smart TVs.
Starting at 9 p.m., the special will also begin airing live on all Global News stations in Alberta.
The precision of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll of 801 Albertans is accurate to within +/- 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all adult Alberta residents been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
– With files from Global News’ Jace Maki and Karen Bartko
The following points need to be stated concerning the Alberta vote of this date.
– The Media coverage has not been very balanced. Lots of pro-Canada stuff, not much (other than negative) about the pro separatist camp. The actual vote has been rather miss-represented in that this is not the vote to leave Canada, other than to start the talks with the Federal government. Then Albertans will vote on leaving or not after this process is complete.
– Another interesting item I have noticed is that while there was lots of talk by the media and ‘talking heads’ on the costs of separating and setting up a sovereign state, I have seen very little of just how many dollars in taxes, royalties, and fees comes from Alberta to pay out to the rest of Canada in the form of equalization. Comparing the out flow of dollars to what actually comes back.
– This vote keeps the issue of Alberta/petroleum industry abuse on the table. If Albertans vote No today, then how fast does the Federal government go back to ignoring one of their primary revenue sources? In fact, get back to the favorite Liberal pastime of ‘winding down’ or taking control (like in Newfoundland) of the Alberta petroleum industry.
– The Federal government on all party sides has a long history of looking covertly at the petroleum industry and while providing short terms of patronizing to us here, they prefer the socialist model where by Ottawa controls all aspects of Canadians lives. They look at Alberta as peasants that need to get back to work, pay those taxes, do as we are told and ‘shut up’. This Ottawa usurping of control is really the base of the other questions. Ottawa allows who they want into Canada, then leaves it to the provinces to fund everything. Time to revisit that concept.
– Another interesting point I have noticed is the twisting of Premier Smiths constant messaging that she is pro Canada. I have watched her say these things from the beginning. So why did Danielle Smith allow this to happen, why did she not punish the separatist people right at the beginning you ask? Because that is the socialist response to dissension. What Danielle gave Albertans was the holist of holies in democracy. The right to vote on the matter, but most of the Haters are ignoring this. Personally, I appreciate that this came to a vote and we are allowed to actively participate in the resolutions. This is much better indicator to what Albertans want then some suspicious polls that seems to provide the answers the commissioners of said polls support. Votes like these tend to frighten socialists to ‘death’. Democracy is just a tool to get power, and then it is discarded.
– But the most import issue here is regardless of what sides you support, get the ‘ell’ out and VOTE. We are lucky to still have this ability. Do not ignore it.
@ Rich – Smith allowing a fringe element to control the UCP should cost her her job. The separatists represent only about half of the UCP party. The rest of Alberta opposes this nonsense. A non-confidence motion is appropriate.
There’s no basis for the treason claims; the separatist groups don’t reach the threshold. However, the UCP should be held account by the voters. Say what you like about the PQ, but they have always been open about being a separatist party that wants to take Quebec out of Canada. On the other hand, it appears the majority of UCP MLAs support separation and were behind Smith’s efforts to support the separatists at every stage of this process, but kept that quiet. They should have been open about their position so that the voters could have decided whether they wanted to be represented by a separatist MLA.
Bret I didn’t take invermecten either. I’m a medical science student actually. I also love my Lord and and try to appreciate the good on both sides of the political spectrum. The steel-man position really helps with one’s own intelligence and personal growth. Its rooted in Christian charity.
G Ingraham to bad we don’t have the death penalty for pesdos and rapist. Your biggest concern is election influence! Must be nice to be so nieve
G Ingraham should the liberal party be investigate for Chinese communist interference too? Stop being crazy. This election interference nonsense needs to stop. Both sides are nuts.
@10:22 get a grip. These people are good people. You’re the problem
Commenter below is a MAGAt moron who eats orange turds!
Commenter below had every lib politician in his mouth and anus, he’s very very very DUMB!
Can we then shave these MAGA traitors head and parade them in the street like what occupied countries did to n@z1 sympathizer after WW2?
Suck it, leftist swine.
Hehe hawhee yuckity pluckity hoohaa Bebop Tango Yankee Doodle foxtrot alpha
@ jb….thanks jb for the Freudian slip compliment….we’re all pretty great over here!
Alberta separatist groups should be investigated for their ties to American interests. Those who sought to collaborate with a foreign power to destroy Canada should be incarcerated for a long, long time. Too bad we don’t have the death penalty for treason.
The separatists cranks are going to have a bad day tomorrow. The federalists are fed up with their constant whining and are going to turnout to shut the crybabies up for good.
70% of the 1000 people asked in a liberal neighborhood in Calgary
Ispos is so lame.
**goof**
Bc Resident is a good
You can’t even run the one you got!
First of all….if the tin hat fits then wear it! Second…you guys keep Danielle and we’ll keep Mr.Eby…but thanks for sticking your nose in our business! ( you guys don’t really think you can run 2 provinces do you? Lol haha!!!)
@1043, on your hands and knees, lube that azz up for liberal politicians, they all want a go
Yep, the Tin foil hat / conspiracy theory brigade is out in full force tonite, posting more nonsense in a pathetic effort to convince themselves and everyone else that separation is the answer and it is really gonna happen! Sure, but only in their warped, delusional minds, lol!
I kinda like my tinfoil hat
The best thing for Alberta would be to separate from Clowney Elbows Up Canada.
Will be good when the NDP is finally booted out of B.C.
Conspiracy ??? The tin foil hats are out tonight ! It’s basic facts and basic math.! And another thing….Elvis isn’t alive either.
I think the yes vote to leave Canada is very likely. Ottawa is very unpopular in Alberta. Clown Carney is loved by the Nenshi NDP base and that is about it.
@ Morgan – Yes, it’s all a conspiracy. All the polling firms and news organizations are in on it. You and your small circle of contacts are not in an isolated, self-reinforcing, grievance-based information silo.
So an Ontario polling company paid by the Federal government is telling us we don’t want to leave when asking the question on Alberta being abused by the Federal government? I guess we can trust that information. I guess I will vote to stay because Ontario tells me that’s what I want.
Smart Guy. The left isn’t afraid of democracy. Alberta separatists are so afraid of democracy that when they disagree with decisions supported by the majority of other Canadians they want a Triple E Senate to overcome the democratic will of the majority.
Why is the left in this country so scared about democracy?Is that how bad Canada is now,people cant even discuss or vote on their concerns.
@ anonymous….actually next to Albertan inbreeding….the English is/ was/ are the worst ! Which is btw where Alberta gets it from. I’ll be fair…..BC has a little too….but not like the rampant cases in your country. Hence the term CONSERVATIVES!!!!!
Alberta’s wages are the highest in Canada because cocaine isn’t free. If you make so much money, why are you so broke , in debt and unhappy? Alberta, smell your finger now. That’s not chocolate.
@619 tabernac, stick to eating poutine for breakfast, lunch and dinner! hahaha
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you libbys are DUUUUUM!
Oh my god did you see all those people at the ralley??? I thought trump was in town… There must have been twelve, or possibly thirteen people there….the likes of which we’ve seen before, in a box of dough nuts.
@546 Joe, I’ll stick to eating possum belly pie with a shovel 👍
@kimberly 335, thanks for lyrics, I took screenshot!
I once told Chuck Norris nothing was impossible. He forced me to divide by zero on a solar powered calculator in a pitch black room
@546, Joe fong gong slong Zong, stick to eating grasshoppers with chopsticks 🥢
@546, Joe Wong Kong bong song, how’s life in Chinese prison?
I wasn’t judging you Kimberly, I don’t have that right. I have a father in heaven who is ultimately the judge of everyone of us. I defer all judgment to him.
We all grow up in different cultures, environments, with different people who nurture, teach and otherwise influence our lives. I cannot make a judgment without knowing what influences you.
The decisions I make on behalf of myself and my family are made using the best information available to me/us.
I accepted receiving a Covid vaccination largely because my employment hinged on it. Whether I thought it was unethical or unhealthy is irrelevant.
I chose not to take Ivermectin largely because there was no real evidence showing that it was more than a placebo.
I will listen to all viewpoints and will sometimes inject my own but I harbour no illusions that I have all the answers.
My political views don’t lean strongly right or left. I prefer to lean forward.
Fear not that your life will come to an end, rather that it might not have a beginning
Organizers of the Alberta separation referendum need to be charged with high treason.
Your skulls are too thick to contain sufficient brain matter to be considered sentient is what he is saying…
“Your graves will be dug up
October 18, 2026 at 5:40 pm
I think pollsters, only because they hold themselves out as experts without sufficient evidence to really back their claim to authority, should be liable for their errent predictions.
I confess, I would prefer this standard be applied to climate scientists that claim their inability to accurately predict weather is hindered by the very thing they claim to have predicted with indisputable evidence.”
Both sides claim to KNOW , but the truth is buried under a mountain of lies
I think pollsters, only because they hold themselves out as experts without sufficient evidence to really back their claim to authority, should be liable for their errent predictions.
I confess, I would prefer this standard be applied to climate scientists that claim their inability to accurately predict weather is hindered by the very thing they claim to have predicted with indisputable evidence.
@510 , I’d say waaaaay better to be called a racist than a liberal without a brain in their skull
Article title is nonsensical as written, unless the word “referendum” is removed, you just stated that the referendum itself is unlikey to happen. Do not your journalists and editors have even a basic command of the English language?
@5:10 it’s not racist to quote statistics. Why don’t you look up a global map on highest rates of cousin marriage? Math is not racist, thats such a silly statement.
@ 4:49 Anonymous – Racist opens their yap to let everyone know how stupid they are. Let me guess: you are also antivax , think the moon landing was faked, 9/11 was an inside job, ‘they’ are poisoning everyone with chemtrails, Trump won in 2020, Democrats are in a child sex ring and mass shootings are false flags.
It was so much better before social media when dumb people were ashamed of being dumb.
@430, they do BC residents cousins you mean, Albertans known for their tube STEAK
@446, are you fetal alcohol born? Just saying
I do not know any Alberta’s who have married or had sexual relations with their cousins, as this is not common in European society. I do know that Ilhan Omar married her brother though and that its customary to marry a close relative in Sudan, Pakistan etc.
Danielle Smith indulged the cranks in the UCP with her Alberta Next tour and it lead us here.
There are 4 constitutional questions for the anti-Ottawa UCPers.
There are 5 immigration questions for the racist UCPers.
Vote no to the nine and remain for #10. Smith should face a non-confidence vote for putting everyone though what turns out to be nothing more than a selfish, irresponsible stunt.
From Monday to Friday….Albertans work. Do you know what they do on weekends?
Their cousins!
It is amazing how divided people are over politics these days. Years ago liberals and conservatives could discuss their different opinions and still be friends and coworkers.
These days everyone seems so full of hatred just because a person has a different view of things.
Hopefully western society changes for the better, otherwise we will destroy ourselves because we are focused on what divides us instead of what brings us together.
The reason why the polls are so low is because the SHORT BUS is running behind schedule!!!
He said, “Son, I’ve made a life
Out of readin’ people’s faces
Knowin’ what the cards were
By the way they held their eyes
So if you don’t mind my sayin’
I can see you’re out of aces
For a taste of your whiskey
I’ll give you some advice”
So I handed him my bottle
And he drank down my last swallow
Then he bummed a cigarette
And asked me for a light
And the night got deathly quiet
And his face lost all expression
Said, “If you’re gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right
You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’
When the dealin’s done
The steel-man position is rooted in charity and helps growth in oneself. It de-escalates hostility and only after you do this can you honestly offer critique or a good rebuttal to your opponents position.
Matthew 5:44
“But I say unto you, Love your enemies, bless them that curse you, do good to them that hate you, and pray for them which despitefully use you, and persecute you;”
I see said the blind man to the deaf mute
ANOTHER FAKE POLE FOR discouragement done by the liberal government
One thing to keep in mind is the powerful benefits to your health and neuroplasticity of not just trying to understanding how someone could possibly see things so different than you, but to actually argue their view using their strongest, not weakest points. This is called the steal-man position. Being angry and toxic because someone sees things differently than you doesn’t help society or yourself. Its like holding on to unforgness or bitterness. You are the one drinking poison daily and hoping the other person feels it. Try to increase your brains intellect by taking your enemies “steal-man” position and see how you improve in your own character.
Always keep your cards close to you
Interesting comment Kimberly “the people who will vote to separate do not trust anyone.”
Interesting because they are the same people would ask the rest of us to trust them.
Seems pretty illogical
sponsered by the gatekeepers of the elite world..
@bc residumb, boy are you fugging stupid, just saying
@bc residumb, how’s your father who’s your mother’s brother?
@bc residumb, after you take a dump you forget what your name is and where you are
Hey Mike you are a tool 😂😂😂
@bc residumb, you know what an Albertan likes about you, the way your cheeks puff out when they fart in your mouth
@bc residumb, an Albertan sh*ts out turds smarter than you
@bc residumb, I guarantee one Albertan is equal to twenty of you
@ buckets….you have a point….first one person marries their cousin….and then another…then another and soon you have the province of Alberta!!!
@Kimberly
Fingers crossed. Here’s hoping you are right!
I think we’ll see a Brexit type surprise repeated because freedom loving separatist don’t answer pollsters or speak to government officials or liberal news outlets.
Onr thing Global news doesn’t understand is that the people who will vote to separate do not trust anyone. They would be very unlikely to speak to pollsters or any government officials. They don’t fill out census forms. Very unlikely to take vaccines or enroll their children in public school. You have no idea how many people in Alberta and B.C. think this way. Its their whole identity that you’re missing. They’re not like you.
No sh_t!!! Fortunately, the majority of Albertans have more grey matter between their ears than the loud, obnoxious and moronic minority.
@anonymous 2:59:
lol, sure Trumpkin, sure!
@ born in Calgary….I do have to disagree with one point though….most people in Alberta are VERY ” SPECIAL” ! LIKE SHORT BUS SPECIAL!!!
Canada will become the 51st state in the next 2 years anyway, whether they like it or not.
@ born in Calgary…..the unicorn! The needle in a haystack! One guy out of 4 million people finally gets it! Thank you ” born in calgary “…thank you. How you can soar like an eagle when surrounded by turkeys is beyond me!
No duh!!!! We’ve known this for a long time now. Why we wasted time, money and oxygen on this is completely moronic. They lied about the signatures they had….don’t have 400 billion….landlocked….and couldn’t organize a drunk fest in a brewery. Not to mention what kind of army were they going to provide. We’re they going to have an ostrich for president?! I myself am disappointed…..I really wanted them gone….and the rest of the imports ro move back home!! It’s not a sad day for Alberta….it’s a disappointing for the rest of canada and especially BC!
One thing for sure – we can count on Canada to keep being Canada. 10 years ago, Alberta Independence was legitimately a fringe idea. Now, 25% of us are ready for it. And Canada keeps doing exactly that which inspires us to leave.
1% became 25%. It will soon be 30% then 45% then 60%.
That is the sound of inevitability, Mr. Anderson
Every politician left or right is a waste of skin, they all bury the truth under a mountain of lies for their own benefit, they are all psychopaths, the solution, if you know tell me
Commenters like “CJ” think disagreeing with (him) makes a government corrupt.
Sorry to break it to you, but Alberta isn’t special.
Alberta gains far more than it gives by being part of Canada.
Every time I “BOTHER” to read ‘Comments’, I read the same stupid comments. Some state that Carney is stupid, dishonest and is helping his dishonest buddies; consider this, if Carney is all the things you accuse him of, what’s your solution? If Liberals are supposedly corrupt etc., consider this, your favorite party must also be corrupt.
Think Canadian and get your heads out of your butts.
Laughable
What will you say when we are going to vote on separation next?
Why dont these polling companies admit all polls only show the people that will answer polls.Maybe 25 to 30%?I never have been asked,and never would answer one.At a gathering I asked 6 people only one said they had ever answered a poll.Plus the least responding to polls are right of center so that can change results.
@Anonymous. Smith’s trying to keep the province in by using leverage tactics to make the moribund and hostile Federal government to take some positive actions in Alberta’s favour. Seems like its working. If you want no brain, look to the progressive politics that has lead the country to its current abysmal loathsome state.
Ali: Are you nuts? It’s called a vote.
Always was a no brainer.
Smith has none.
Not sure why people think sticking with this corrupt fed govt is the way to go. Take off the blinders and think of future generations that have to live in this dumpmof a country, the liberals have turned it into. Take your shot and make it count. Stay in Canada? Sure, but give the province some control back and stop flooding the province. And Carney….take care of Canada and Canadians, not your personal agenda, bank account, rich buddies, Crookfield, and your laundering mats in the Ukraine.
Then why are the “Forever Canadians” obsessed with it? If there was no chance of a successful separation vote you would not be going on about it all day every day.
This story is just beginning; not ending. Imperialism has come roaring back to life with Donald J. Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
It’s called the paradox of world chaos: insecurity means security!
The US, China and Russia do not want a world of settled borders but rather a world of uncertain borders to secure their futures: Because everyone knows the world is on the cusp of catastrophic climate change impacts.
These big three bullies will do whatever it takes in an attempt to survive climate change; even it means taking over other countries for their resources!
Canada is the apple of America’s eye for oil, water and critical minerals.
The South China Sea is the apple of China’s eye for seafood resources and control of Asia, and the Ukraine is the apple of Russia’s eye for its rich bread basket resources and critical minerals!
That leaves Canada only one option; join the EU and become a bully too. NATO needs to expel the US before it’s too late and stop its buddy Russia in its tracks by shipping military forces to the frontlines with Ukraine! Then the bully Russia will backoff!
Neither is lasting unity or peace so long as Liberals choke the life out of Canada with their smug authoritarian attitude.
I’m sure the Russian bots and MAGAts will be very disappointed.
Sorry seperatist, russian and chinese agents, and other losers, the Province of Alberta will stay as part of Canada. Even with the foolish liberals and Carney doing harm to Canada we are better together than seperate.
Regardless of this particular outcome, Canada is dead, liberals killed it.
Thank a liberal voter, those c()nts have destroyed everything
@Ben and slaves were an integral part of the early United states. Being integral to the ruling class’ aspirations doesn’t mean the subjugated entity has no right to complain or seek autonomy.
You would call separation “treason” yet see little reason to heed their pleas. Because you’re a tyrant, not a patriot or a democracy advocate.
Surely if we’re expecting the separatists to accept it and move on when they lose, we can also expect the federal govt to accept the fact that they can’t neglect Alberta anymore either? No, of course the idea is that this referendum should once and for all tell Albertans that Ottawa rules and they should shut up.
Albertans simply want autonomy… Why is that so much to ask? The same people who are against separation are the people who would look at that 30% and tell them they’re interests are irrelevant, then call the resulting anger “undemocratic”.
Accept it and move on. Now Alberya will be screwed forever
Another Ipsos poll that that’s a very small percentage of the population and claims it speaks for everyone.
I dont think anyone with intelligence though the separatists would win
The answers to the other questions are far more important in the broader sense especially given the disconnect between Ottawa and Canadians regarding immigration
Our country isn’t perfect, but it is the best country in the world. Alberta is an integral part of a united country.