April 30, 2015 1:00 pm
Updated: May 1, 2015 12:08 pm

Exclusive: NDP poised to win Alberta election according to poll

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Watch above: An exclusive Ipsos poll conducted for Global News and Corus Entertainment suggests the NDP has taken the lead over the Wildrose and PCs ahead of the 2015 Alberta election. Jenna Freeman reports.

CALGARY – With less than a week to go before Albertans cast their ballots in the upcoming provincial election, a new poll suggests the NDP will claim victory over divided right-of-centre voters.

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In an Ipsos poll conducted for Global News and Corus Entertainment, 37 per cent of respondents said if an election were held tomorrow, they would be most likely to support the NDP. The Wildrose and Progressive Conservatives were neck and neck, sitting with 26 per cent and 24 per cent respectively.

The poll suggests the Liberals would receive 9 per cent of the vote, while the Alberta Party would receive just 3 per cent of the vote.

Lastly, one per cent of the vote would go to another party.

The findings suggest Albertans are considering change, according to Jamie Duncan, vice president of public affairs at Ipsos.

“They are clearly not happy with some of the things that have happened in Alberta over the last few months or few years, and they’re looking for an alternative,” said Duncan. “And what it means is the NDP right now has positioned themselves as that alternative.”

FULL COVERAGE: Alberta election 2015

However, only 52 per cent of those who chose a party to support say they’re “dead set” in their vote, while 48 per cent said they “still haven’t fully made up their mind” and could switch to another party. Duncan called this a “fairly soft” commitment to vote.

The poll showed Wildrose supporters were the most committed to their party, with Liberal and Alberta Party supporters the most likely to change their vote:

  • NDP supporters – 51 per cent have made up their mind, while 49 per cent could change their mind.
  • Wildrose supporters – 64 per cent have made up their mind, while 36 per cent could change their mind.
  • PC supporters – 54 per cent have made up their mind, while 46 per cent could change their mind.
  • Liberal supporters – 25 per cent have made up their mind, while 75 per cent could change their mind.
  • Alberta Party supporters – 31 per cent have made up their mind, while 70 per cent could change their mind.

READ MORE: Voting 101

There were also vast differences between Calgary and Edmonton when it came to supporters who had decided on their votes:

Calgary Decided vote

“The thing to keep in mind with Calgary is that we’ve got the NDP and the PCs in a bit of a tie…the Wildrose coming up in third,” said Duncan.

“So what that means is that there are a number of ridings that might be up for grabs, but it’s not a clear win in Calgary for the NDP like it is in Edmonton.”

Edmonton decided vote results

Despite the fact that the poll shows the NDP with a solid lead within days of the election, half of Albertans still think the PCs will win the election once all the votes are counted.

Only 21 per cent of respondents think the NDP will actually win, while fewer (17 per cent) think the Wildrose will win.

The data from the poll revealed that there is no clear favourite for second choice. Twenty-one per cent of respondents said the Wildrose would be their second choice, while 18 per cent said the NDP, 17 per cent said the Liberals and 12 per cent said the PCs.

READ MORE: Advanced polls open in Alberta election

Duncan said there was also a “fascinating” finding when it came to voters in the 55 years and older demographic.

“We’re seeing a bit of a three-way race still within Albertans over the age of 55—that they haven’t decided really between PCs, Wildrose or the NDP, which breaks a bit of a stereotype we have within voters in that age group in Alberta.”

Duncan said with voters who were polled in the 18 to 34 years of age range, there was a stronger affinity to the NDP party.

“The challenge with that voter block is that they don’t come out in the same numbers as the voter blocks that are older than them,” said Duncan. “So when you’ve got 46 per cent of that age group saying they’re going to vote NDP, can you count on them to show up at the polls? Maybe, maybe not.”

Watch below: Ipsos’ Jamie Duncan explains the exclusive poll results.

Exclusive Global News Ipsos polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Global News Ipsos.” This poll was conducted between April 27 and 29, 2015 with a sample of 761 adults living in Alberta and is accurate to within +/ – 4.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Albertan adults been polled. 

– With files from Erika Tucker

BELOW: See the complete poll from Ipsos conducted on behalf of Global News and Corus Entertainment

Alberta Factum #1 by Jacob Rojas

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