What does John Baird’s resignation mean for the Conservatives?

WATCH: Chief Political Correspondent Tom Clark discusses the effect John Baird’s resignation will have on the Conservatives.

OTTAWA – Conservative House Leader Peter Van Loan tried to put on a smile, but the disappointment was there in his voice when he was asked how John Baird’s sudden departure from politics will affect his party.

“There’s no doubt it leaves a big hole in the caucus and in the government and in the cabinet,” said Van Loan, who represents his party in the Commons.

“People like John Baird don’t come along every day.”

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On Tuesday, Conservatives expressed shock over Baird’s resignation as foreign affairs minister and his decision to step down in the coming weeks after 20 years in provincial and federal politics.

WATCH: Baird on decision, thanks Harper for mentorship

“I had no idea,” Justice Minister Peter MacKay said in the foyer of the House of Commons.

“I haven’t spoken to him. I sent him an email last night. I suspect he has a lot on his mind.”

But just what was going through Baird’s head when he made the decision – reportedly months ago, according to the Canadian Press – is the key question in the major shakeup to Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s cabinet.

“I will miss this place very much, and many of the people in it on all sides,” Baird told the House of Commons.

“But the time has come for me to start a new chapter in my life.”

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With eight months or less to go before the next election, Baird’s departure at the height of his career is further indication that the 2015 election will be a hard-fought battle for the majority Conservatives.

READ MORE: Five things to know about John Baird’s long political career

In what could be the prime minister’s final election, Harper loses one of his most-trusted and well-respected ministers – an independent, principled thinker who has denied federal leadership aspirations of his own.

However, Baird reportedly didn’t tell Harper until the news of his departure leaked to the media on Monday night.

“John has always been willing to do a lot of heavy lifting in my various cabinets and has assumed daunting new responsibilities with unsurpassed energy, commitment and professionalism, never losing sight of the fact that he was serving the Canadian people,” Harper said in a release.

Maybe ‘a crack’

For Baird, 45, leaving on a high note perhaps signals a belief that the only way for his party to go is down.

Polls have put Harper’s Conservatives neck-and-neck, and in some cases, a few points ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals  – with the NDP pressuring the government daily on its decision to delay the spring budget.

One Conservative MP told Global News he predicted more departures before the election is called. And many experts are skeptical Harper can repeat his 2011 victory.

“The odds right now do not look like the Conservatives are going to win a majority,” said Nelson Wiseman, an associate professor of Canadian government at the University of Toronto.

If the Conservatives win a minority, Wiseman predicts, the two opposition parties will form an accord to defeat the Harper government on the Speech from the Throne, the government’s first order of business for the upcoming Parliamentary session.

“In the scenario of the Liberals getting most seats, Baird goes from being a senior cabinet minister, to being just somebody,” said Wiseman.

Wiseman doesn’t figure Baird’s departure will impact the government on a national level, especially during an election campaign that tends to focus primarily on the leader.

But it could make a difference in Ottawa, and more specifically the new west-end riding of Nepean, which Baird had opted to run in if he stuck around.

READ MORE: Lunch with John Baird: not out for validation from ‘elites’ and why he’s scared of Iran

Still, others believe Baird’s departure is par for the course in a government that’s held power for nine years.

“There’s no speculation that Mr. Baird is leaving, for anything other than the reasons he’s said,” said Jonathan Malloy, chair of the political science department at Carleton University in Ottawa.

“If certain other people suddenly departed, maybe that’s a crack or something. There’s no evidence to suggest that this is anything other than what it is: Mr. Baird has decided to move on from politics.”

Still, the seemingly abrupt nature of the announcement, which left Baird’s staff members looking shaken and cabinet ministers solemnly reflecting on his achievements, has further fueled the belief that Harper is in for the fight of his career.

Treasury Board President Tony Clement, elected with Baird to Queen’s Park as a Progressive Conservative in 1995, said Baird’s decision is all part of the mercurial nature of politics.

“We all have our roles to play, but no one – no one – in politics is somebody that cannot be replaced,” he said.

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“I wish John well, but he will be replaced, and we will have an excellent team of returning candidates and we’ll have an excellent team of new candidates who want to share their vision and their hard work for Canadians in the next Parliament.

“So none of that changes.”