Debunking the Olympic fatigue myth

A major concern for teams with Olympians is how to manage the stretch run with a bunch of tired bodies who went through an intense and draining tournament. Post-Olympic fatigue could be a huge factor when the NHL resumes play.

Or could it? Does an Olympic fatigue effect really exist?

The Blackhawks sent six players to Vancouver in 2010, the sixth most of any team in the league, yet they still managed to win the Stanley Cup. And those players weren’t bit parts on also-ran teams. In total, the six Hawks combined to play in 41 Olympic games, surpassed only by the players from Anaheim and San Jose.

The Blackhawks did experience a post-Olympic hangover, however, at least in the regular season. In the 61 games leading up to the Olympics, the Hawks banked 1.43 points per game; in the 21 games after returning that number dropped to 1.19, the third biggest drop in the league.

But the Blackhawks are only one example. League-wide there wasn’t a noticeable fatigue effect on team performance. There was no significant correlation between the amount of players a team sent to the Olympics and how well their team played post-Olympics.

The playoffs was a different story. The was a significant correlation between the amount of players a team sent to Vancouver and their playoff performance (r = 0.40), meaning teams that sent more players to the Olympics typically went further in the post-season. The Sharks made the Western Conference Final after having eight Olympians, and the Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup. Having the best players was important, even if they were less rested than the competition who spent two weeks on a beach.

But Vancouver is a lot closer than Sochi, and the travel involved in this year’s Olympics might produce an even greater fatigue effect.

However, a fatigue effect didn’t exist when looking at how teams fared after returning from Turin in 2006, either. Once again there was not a significant correlation between the amount of players a team sent to the Olympics and how well the team performed afterwards.

The Detroit Red Wings sent a whopping 10 players to the 2006 Olympics, and those players played in 74 Olympic games, yet Detroit actually got better post-Olympics, increasing their points per game from a league-best 1.46 to an even better 1.64. Of course, Detroit wound up getting stonewalled by Dwayne Roloson and the Edmonton Oilers in the first round and ended their season early.

Unlike 2010, the amount of players sent to the Olympics was not a good gauge of playoff performance. Edmonton and Carolina ended up in the Stanley Cup Final, and only had a combined seven Olympians. League-wide, sending more players to the Olympics was not significantly correlated with post-season success.

But predicting who will do well in the playoffs is chaotic at the best of times. It unsurprising that the last two Olympics produced no consensus. What is certain is that you can blame a lot of things for your team’s failure, but you can’t blame Olympic fatigue.