Alberta election boils down to Calgary voter turnout: Ipsos

A new Ipsos poll done for Global News shows little change in party rankings and the results are in the hands of voters as the province gets ready for Monday’s election.

The poll surveyed 1,300 Albertans, 51 per cent of whom favoured the United Conservative’s Danielle Smith over the NDP’s Rachel Notley (46 per cent).

According to the poll, the race is tied in Calgary with both parties sitting at 49 per cent, and the NDP leading in Edmonton with 57 per cent versus 40 per cent for the UCP. The UCP “dominates” the rest of the province with a staggering 34-point lead (65 percent versus 31 per cent for the NDP).

“The campaign ends pretty much where it began with the UCP having a slight lead over the NDP in terms of voter preference,” said Kyle Braid, Senior Vice President of Ipsos public affairs. “The race is really up for grabs in the Calgary CMA where the parties are tied.

“It’s advantage UCP, it’s their election there to win, but there are still uncertainties based on these numbers.”

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Braid added that it really comes down to voter turnout. The NDP tends to attract a younger voter demographic, while the UCP sees a larger turnout from older generations, he said.

The poll shows a 17-point margin among older voters with the UCP leading with 57 per cent, while the NDP has a 9-point lead amongst younger voters 18 to 34-years-old. The parties are essentially tied 50 percent (UCP) to 47 per cent (NDP) amongst Albertans aged 35-54 years.

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Braid said it wasn’t surprising that the results were similar to those at the beginning of the election.

“The campaign really got officially underway long before the writ was dropped earlier this month. The parties have been staking out their positions, there haven’t been a whole lot of new promises made during this campaign that weren’t made before.

“Let’s face it: These are two leaders that Albertans have known well, and they’ve known more many years. It was unlikely that people’s impressions were going to change much of these two leaders,” Braid said.

“It really does come down to who wins in Calgary, and at this point,” he said. “It’s voters that determine the outcome — they actually need to turn up to vote in order to have their party win.”

2:34 Decision Alberta: The changing dynamic of the province’s politics