Meteorologists are predicting an average hurricane season in 2023, but Atlantic water temperatures and the El Niño weather phenomenon are leading to uncertainty.
During a media availability Thursday, Bob Robichaud, a warning preparedness meteorologist with the Canadian Hurricane Centre, said these two “competing factors” could affect how the hurricane season will play out.
Robichaud said water temperatures are warm in the eastern part of the Atlantic and are expected to warm further into the peak of the hurricane season, between August and October. Warm Atlantic waters are where “hurricanes get their fuel,” he said.
However, he said temperatures in the Pacific Ocean will also play a role. He said this year, meteorologists are predicting a relatively strong El Niño — when winds blowing west along the equator slow down, and warm water is pushed east, creating warmer surface ocean temperatures.
“When we have an El Niño, we tend to have fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic,” he said.
“So we really have two competing factors, which will determine the level of activity in the Atlantic Ocean this year,” he said. “Which one actually ends up being the dominant one remains to be seen.”
He said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes.
Robichaud acknowledged the “fairly wide range,” saying that’s “indicative of the uncertainty” of those two factors. He added that there is work being done at the Canadian Hurricane Centre to help determine what proportion of those storms are predicted to hit Canada.
2022 season
During the 2022 season, there were 14 named storms. Eight of them became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes: Fiona and Ian.
Fiona was a powerful hurricane that initially hit communities in Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos.
By the time it moved up over Atlantic Canada in September 2022, it was a strong post-tropical cyclone. Fiona caused widespread damage in parts of the region — downing trees, ripping apart buildings and washing homes into the ocean.
The town of Port aux Basques, N.L., was especially hit hard. The town’s mayor estimated in November 2022 that between 85 and 90 houses had either washed away or were rendered inhabitable by the storm.
Local states of emergency were declared in some parts, including Nova Scotia’s Cape Breton Regional Municipality and Victoria County. Premier Tim Houston later requested both military and federal assistance.
Fiona was the costliest weather event to ever hit Atlantic Canada, with at least $800 million in insured damages.
Meanwhile, Ian was a powerful Category 4 hurricane that struck Cuba and later made landfall in southwestern Florida. That storm caused $112 billion USD in damage, making it the costliest hurricane in Florida’s history.
The World Meteorological Organization announced in March that Fiona and Ian would be retired as hurricane names, after the “death and destruction” caused by the two storms in 2022. Instead, Farrah will be used to replace Fiona, and Idris will replace Ian.
The list of storm names for 2023 are: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney.
Hurricane preparedness
Robichaud said when preparing for hurricane season, it’s important for people to look at their own personal situations and what the risks are. For instance, he said some people were lining up to get propane for their generators the day after Fiona made landfall.
As well, he took note of those who live by the coast and may be put at risk by flooding.
“(There are) preparations that you can do now, well ahead of the storm, and that’s assessing your property, assessing your situation, determining if we do get a storm that results in significant coastal flooding risk, if you live near the coast, where you need to go, coming up with a plan,” he said, adding that people should also pay attention to real-time weather information.
Robichaud added that the Canadian Hurricane Centre is starting to focus more on the impacts of hurricanes rather than just the numbers.
“I mean, we can tell you the winds are going to be 170 kilometres per hour, but it’s such a rare event that most people don’t know what 170 kilometre-per-hour winds will do,” he said.
“So that’s the direction that we’re going, is to start focusing on less on the numbers and more on the impacts. Talking about areas that may be underwater, areas where you’re going to have large trees, that have been there your entire life that are no longer there anymore.
“That’s the kind of thing that we’re trying to do to get people to prepare better for these storms ahead of time.”
— With files from Global News’ Rebecca Lau