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Canada heading into recession – but not as deep as previously forecasted: Deloitte

Click to play video: 'Is Canada headed toward recession? Experts have ‘no consensus’ on future of inflation'
Is Canada headed toward recession? Experts have ‘no consensus’ on future of inflation
For months, inflation has been on a downward slope and there are signs it peaked in June of last year, cooling to 6.3 per cent in December, according to Statistics Canada. But it’s still too soon to say whether inflation has been tamed. “I’ve never seen the range of opinion on where inflation is headed in my life,” said Armine Yalnizyan, economist and fellow with the Atkinson Foundation. "There’s absolutely no consensus on what the future holds.” Anne Gaviola reports – Feb 16, 2023

New research says Canada is heading into a mild recession as elevated borrowing costs, a downturn in the U.S. and persistent inflation dial up the country’s economic uncertainty.

Deloitte Canada’s latest economic outlook, released ahead of the federal budget on Tuesday, says tight monetary policy is set to squeeze economic growth this year.

But the research suggests the recession won’t be as deep as previously forecasted thanks to the resiliency of the labour market, which is keeping incomes strong.

The report is forecasting real gross domestic product to fall by 0.5 per cent this year before rebounding with two per cent growth in 2024, while inflation is expected to cool rapidly throughout the rest of this year.

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Deloitte says the federal budget, set to be tabled in Ottawa Tuesday afternoon, will likely include affordability measures to help lower-income Canadians, health care support for provinces and incentives to reduce carbon emissions.

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The report says these priorities should not have a notable impact on inflation _ provided the spending increases are not dramatic.

Click to play video: 'With recession fears in Canada, is an economic ‘soft landing’ on the table?'
With recession fears in Canada, is an economic ‘soft landing’ on the table?

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