Ontario voters seem to be pointing the finger at Premier Doug Ford, according to a new poll, blaming the Progressive Conservative government for the closure of classrooms amid an escalating fight with thousands of education-support workers.
The poll by Abacus Data found 62 per cent of respondents believe the Ford government bears the most responsibility for schools being closed, while 38 per cent blame the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE).
The public-opinion poll conducted on Nov. 4 and 5 surveyed 1,000 Ontario residents aged 18 and over carries a margin or error of 3.1 per cent 19 times out of 20, according to Abacus Data.
The survey also found a majority of parents of school-aged children, 68 per cent, “blame the provincial government most” for schools being closed over what union members call a political protest.
The poll is the first snapshot of how parents and voters might be interpreting the contract clash between the two sides at a time when both parties have been trying to sway public opinion, seen as crucial to winning the overall battle.
Abacus Data found there is “widespread awareness” about the government’s use of the notwithstanding clause to impose a contract on the union and “significant attention” is being paid to the issue.
When asked about the use of the notwithstanding clause, 50 per cent of respondents believe it was a bad idea, while 36 per cent felt it was a good idea and 14 per cent were unsure.
The use of the clause to override the Charter of Rights and Freedoms and prevent CUPE from launching legal action over Bill 28 triggered a wave of backlash from public and private sector unions.
CUPE claims their walkout is a “political protest” over the imposition of a four-year contract and the use of the notwithstanding clause, while the Ford government maintains it is an “illegal” strike.
But while classrooms province-wide were shut down or disrupted over the walkout, the question over what should happen next has parents backing the union over the government.
The poll found that 71 per cent of respondents believe the Ford government should “negotiate a fair deal with education workers to end the strike” rather than continue the current approach, while 29 per cent believe the government should “insist on a lower wage increase for education workers.”
Among parents, 69 per cent believe a negotiated deal is the best path forward, while 56 per cent of Progressive Conservative voters feel a negotiation is the best approach.
Political consequence
While the pitched battle has captured public attention, it hasn’t eroded overall support for the Ford government, which was swept into a second majority government in June.
Abacus Data found Premier Ford’s personal approval ratings have dropped since the provincial election with just 29 per cent of respondents telling the pollster they have a positive impression of the premier — down 10 points from the election.
The poll found 45 per cent of respondents have a negative impression of the premier, up five percentage points from the election.
Education Minister Stephen Lecce’s rankings are also low with 42 per cent of respondents indicating they have a negative view, while 15 per cent expressing having a positive view of the minister. 29 per cent said they were neutral.
Abacus Data said, however, “the Ford government hasn’t been hurt politically” because the 38 per cent of respondents said they would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservatives if an election were held today, down just three percentage points from the June election.
“The proportion of those moving away from the PCs isn’t large enough to worry the Tories and the next election isn’t for more than 3 years from now,” the pollster said.
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