With disturbing images circulating of civilians hurt or killed in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, international investigations are underway to determine if Moscow is committing war crimes or genocide.
But experts say the probes are unlikely to accomplish anything in terms of justice or holding Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government accountable for the atrocities.
“It’s a noble effort,” said Aurel Braun, a professor of international relations and political science at the University of Toronto and an associate of the Davis Center at Harvard University.
“They certainly appear to be important and needed. But I can tell you right away that they will be useless against Russia.”
International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutors are currently collecting evidence of alleged war crimes amid calls from 41 countries, including Canada and the United States, to investigate Russia’s actions.
That process could take months, if not years, experts say — and even if charges are recommended, there’s no guarantee those officials will even stand trial, let alone face a conviction.
Yet experts say the process could still be an important step forward for the international community, provided it’s coupled with further action to counter Russia.
“If we’re just using it to say Putin is a bad guy, we know that already,” Braun said. “We know this war is wrong. So is this just a feel-good measure, or will it lead to the West ensuring that every action is taken to stop it?”
How will the investigation work?
ICC prosecutor Karim Khan has launched an online portal for evidence of atrocities in the Ukrainian war to be submitted.
While the investigation is examining claims of war crimes against both Ukrainians and Russian forces, Khan says he is particularly concerned about attacks on civilians, which are against international law if done intentionally.
Moscow has denied it is targeting civilian areas or residents directly, insisting it is only interested in destroying Ukrainian military infrastructure and “denazifying” the government.
Yet the United Nations estimates over 600 civilians have died so far since war broke out three weeks ago, while more than 1,100 have been hurt. Residential buildings, hospitals and schools have also been destroyed, and over 3 million people have fled the shelling for neighbouring countries.
Investigators are looking not only at the alleged targeting of civilians, but also the reported use of cluster bombs that can cause indiscriminate damage, which may also constitute a war crime. Any future use of chemical weapons — a new fear by NATO and the West — will also be scrutinized.
Genevieve Bates, an assistant professor of political science at the University of British Columbia who studies the ICC and the international justice system, says prosecutors will have a difficult time gathering and verifying evidence as the conflict rages. That makes the online portal extremely helpful, she said.
“It’s geared towards ensuring that people who have information about abuses by all parties are able to get it heard and seen,” she said. “Because right now, prosecutors cannot go (to Ukraine) directly. It’s simply too dangerous.”
Once prosecutors feel they have enough evidence to make a case against certain individuals deemed responsible for committing war crimes, Bates says arrest warrants or summons to appear in court will be issued.
But she says it is unlikely any decisions will emerge before the end of 2022 — even if a peace agreement is struck well before then — due to the long process of evidence-gathering.
“I would be shocked if it was sooner,” she said.
“Also, if prosecutors are going to be bringing charges against Putin and other officials — even the fact that they might accuse Russia at all — they need to make extremely sure that they have everything right. They have to be very careful.”
Trials would then be held at the Hague, an international court in the Netherlands, with prosecutors aiming to land a conviction. Potential sentences after any guilty verdict would likely include prison time.
Could Putin be held accountable?
Experts say it will be near-impossible to get some of the highest-ranking Russian officials, including Putin, in front of a tribunal at the Hague. Even prosecuting lower-ranking military officials and soldiers could be difficult.
“It’s not as though police can come into Russia and arrest them,” said Lisa Sundstrom, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia. That’s because the ICC has to rely on national police forces that can’t cross borders, she and other experts say.
“Really, as long as Putin and others don’t slip up and travel out of Russia with an arrest warrant hanging over them, they’ll be safe,” Sundstrom added.
She points to the number of Nazi officials and concentration camp guards who evaded the Nuremberg Trials by hiding in several countries. Some of those charged with war crimes are still being brought to trial today.
The ICC has also had an extremely limited success rate when it comes to prosecuting war criminals. Since its founding in 2002, only 10 convictions have been won.
Other means of prosecuting Putin and his inner circle will also likely be fruitless, experts say. An International Criminal Tribunal, similar to the one held over the Balkans war and the fall of Yugoslavia, would need approval by the U.N. Security Council, on which Russia currently serves as president and has veto power.
Rather than focusing on a potential trial for Putin, Bates says the threat of lengthy war crimes tribunals over Ukraine could be used as a bargaining chip to help de-escalate the war, with the prospect of international humiliation dangling over the Kremlin.
Braun, meanwhile, says the investigations should be coupled with a stronger intervention by the West.
“What we need to focus on is what (British Prime Minister) Boris Johnson said, which is that Russia needs to fail and needs to be seen failing,” he said.
“Any prosecutions or trials must come after we do everything on the ground to make sure that the invasion fails.”