Two infectious disease specialists say Ontario’s move to end its proof of vaccination protocol against COVID-19 and its capacity limits is a reasonable step based on what public health data is telling us amid the ongoing global pandemic.
Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS) epidemiologist Dr. Dominik Mertz told Global News that despite some provincial wastewater data showing a bit of an uptick in coronavirus, current health-care metrics continue to improve.
“We see case numbers continue to decline in hospitals, and that helps. It’s absolutely reasonable to take this next step today,” Mertz told 900 CHML’s Good Morning Hamilton.
As of Tuesday, Ontario’s hospitals are reporting 914 people admitted with COVID-19, and 278 in intensive care units. This is up 65 hospitalizations but a decrease of one in ICUs compared with Monday.
On the same day last week, there were 1,038 hospitalizations with 319 in the ICU.
In Hamilton, the number of patients requiring care from its hospital networks continues to decline, with just 43 total COVID-19 patients in city facilities, a drop of about 36 since Feb. 22.
That’s just under 200 fewer cases than the 240 reported on Feb. 1.
Both HHS and St. Joe’s are reporting fewer than five COVID-19 patients each in their ICUs as of Tuesday.
Hospital staff isolating for COVID-19 has also dropped significantly since the start of February, with just 180 off work as of Tuesday. Combined, the hospital reported more than 300 affected workers at the beginning of February.
The drop spurred HHS to eliminate its proof of vaccination policy for visitors this week and resume some long-awaited procedures such as cancer screening, diagnostic imaging and surgical care.
The scientific director for Ontario’s COVID-19 science table told 900 CHML’s Bill Kelly Show wastewater data has been showing a steady “downward slope” in coronavirus matter since the end of January, with continued “flattening” since the Feb. 17 loosening of capacity limits.
“So we’ve probably reached the bottom of the valley now … perhaps around 15 to 20,000 infections daily,” Dr. Peter Juni said.
“We are only able to detect about 10 per cent of those infections, but that’s what we see based on the wastewater.”
Hamilton public health reported a weekly case positivity rate of 12.3 per cent on Tuesday, which is down from the 19.1 per cent reported on Feb. 1.
The last report from IC/ES researchers for the week of Feb. 6 showed the city’s positivity rate dropped to 12.12 per cent, below the provincial average at the time – 12.51 per cent.
Both Juni and Mertz admit the pandemic is not over and not everyone has immunity against the virus. Infections are likely to continue and there still could be another wave – even with the current Omicron variant.
“We can try … to model when that next increase in cases and eventually hospital admissions may occur, but it proves to be very difficult these days because we don’t even know how many people have had an Omicron infection,” said Mertz.
However, Juni believes the current scenario is “a completely different situation” from the easing of restrictions about a year ago when cases were driven by the Alpha variant due to a lack of high vaccination rates.
He says a combination of two-dose vaccination rates, seven million Ontarians with third doses and an estimated four million COVID-19 infections since December 2021 likely equates to “short-term protection” against the current variant.
“We probably will see a little bit of a resurgence now,” said Juni.
“What does this mean? We might have a little bit of an uptick in hospitals and ICUs, but it’s extremely unlikely that this would be at the same level as before.”
Another positive sign for Hamilton is the significant decline in institutional outbreaks across the city over the last 30 days, dropping from the 54 reported on Feb. 1 to just seven as of Tuesday.
The surges accounted for close to 1,300 cases at the beginning of that month before dropping to under 100 as of Monday.
The outbreak at the Alexander Place Long-Term Care home, declared Jan. 1, accounts for the bulk of the current cases with 70.
The city’s COVID-19-related death count dropped almost in half month to month, comparing data from January and February.
Public health reported 58 deaths between the start of January and the beginning of February. Between February and March, there were just over 30.
Nineteen of the deceased in February were people over the age of 80, while 11 were in their 70s, according to city data.
Close to 88 per cent of Hamiltonians 12-plus fully vaccinated
As of Tuesday, more than 1.2 million first doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in Hamilton, with about 467,000 second doses and 285,000 third shots given out as of Monday.
Close to 88 per cent of Hamiltonians aged 12 and older have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. First-dose coverage stands at 90.3 per cent. Third-dose immunization is at 52.6 per cent.
The city is still slightly behind the provincial average in first-dose vaccinations – 92.6 per cent. Second doses in Ontario are at 90.5 per cent, with third doses at 54.1 per cent.
Fifty-two per cent of children aged five to 11 have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the city, with second doses at just over 30 per cent. The numbers are on par with the provincial rates in that age group, which stand at 54.7 per cent and 28.1 per cent, respectively.
Youth between 12 and 17 represents the age group with the second-lowest of the vaccination rates, according to city data. Just over 85 per cent have had a single dose, 82 per cent have had a second shot and just eight per cent have had a third.
Comments