COMMENTARY: Sorry B.C., but electorally speaking, you look like Ontario

This is my seventh federal election in B.C. as a pollster for Ipsos.

Every election since my first in 2004, people have asked me if this is the one where B.C. is going to make a difference. It used to be that a winner was often declared before British Columbians even turned on their televisions to see the results come in. Voting times by region are more uniform these days, but people still want to know if a shift in B.C. will make a difference to the final outcome.

The last two elections have been close three-way contests in British Columbia.

When the Liberals achieved their Sunny Ways majority in 2015, the three main parties were separated by just nine percentage points in the popular vote (Liberals 35 per cent; Conservatives 30 per cent; NDP 26 per cent) and the distribution of seats was just as tight (Liberals 17; NDP 14; Conservative 10).

The 2019 Liberal minority election was just as close, with the three main parties separated by just 10 percentage points in the popular vote (Conservatives 34 per cent; Liberals 26 per cent; NDP 24 per cent) and an equally tight distribution of seats (Conservatives 17; Liberals and NDP 11 each).

If the Liberal goal in having this election is to move from minority to majority status, they will hope to gain seats in British Columbia.

That will not be an easy task.

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In the six prior B.C. elections, the Conservatives have won the most seats five times, with the lone exception being 2015. And the Liberals have won more seats than the NDP only twice (2015 and 2004). Recent history is not on the Liberals’ side.

The current campaign is now approaching the two-week point and Ipsos has completed two national polls. A few things stand out so far.

We know from past polling that British Columbians definitely consider themselves western Canadians, which is a nice way of saying we are distinct from Toronto. When asked, they say our province has more in common with Alberta than any other province. But a glance at our current polling numbers shows that B.C. has much more in common politically with Ontario than it does with Alberta or the rest of the west.

The Conservatives are slightly ahead of the Liberals in both B.C. and Ontario (+3 points in B.C., +4 points in Ontario). The NDP trail in both provinces with support in the mid-20s (27 per cent B.C.; 23 per cent Ont.). B.C. also matches Ontario for federal government approval, views of the leaders, optimism for the future and most important campaign issues. A campaign that resonates in seat-rich Ontario should also resonate in B.C.

The Liberals called this election, so let’s review their polling numbers first.

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Their early returns are mixed. Their current vote support is 31 per cent of decided voters, which is an increase of five percentage points from the 2019 election. Some of that comes from a poor showing so far for the Greens (down eight points from 2019), but it does mean this is a closer race so far with the Conservatives than in 2019. However, the early campaign fundamentals for the Liberals have taken a hit in B.C.

Approval of the Trudeau government fell eight points in our second campaign poll. A belief that the Liberals deserve re-election fell nine points in the second campaign poll. And British Columbians are among the highest in the country for believing that we should not be having an election during a pandemic (agreement went up five points in the second poll), which could lead to a backlash or voter apathy for the Liberals.

The NDP should be doing better than its third-place 27 per cent support among decided voters. We still have a popular NDP provincial government and premier – 74 per cent of British Columbians say they approve of John Horgan’s handling of COVID-19 (versus 60 per cent for Trudeau in B.C.).

Jagmeet Singh is the only one of the three main party leaders with more favourable than unfavourable impressions in B.C. (+13 versus -18 for O’Toole and -19 for Trudeau). Moreover, most of the close two-way or three-way races in B.C. are in Metro Vancouver, especially in the suburbs, which is where the provincial NDP has made the biggest gains in the two most recent provincial elections.

The Conservatives have the support of 34 per cent of decided voters (unchanged from the 2019 election) and are in the fortunate position of having the opportunity to grow, as they are still are a long way from the 44-46 per cent support they received under Stephen Harper in 2008 and 2011. The Conservatives are also unlikely to be at risk of a significant drop in support from the current 34 per cent. In the past six elections, they have never done worse than the 30 per cent support they received in 2015. Erin O’Toole’s campaign job is to outperform what Andrew Scheer achieved in 2019 – hardly a high hurdle to get over.

The biggest challenge for the three main parties might be figuring out what issues matter to British Columbians.

For the most part, we have been satisfied with the performance of the federal government over the last few years. B.C. is not at war with the federal government on issues like pipelines or fisheries or transfer payments. The top five issues for British Columbians look the same as nationally, with no single dominant issue – health care (28 per cent), economy (27 per cent), affordability (27 per cent), COVID (24 per cent) and climate change (23 per cent). Most would expect B.C. to stand out from the rest of the country on climate change (we don’t) or on housing/affordability (the rest of the country has caught up to B.C. on these issues).

So what does it all mean for B.C.?

It’s close. There is opportunity for all parties. The final result in B.C. could see any of the three main parties winning the most seats, or the least seats. Campaigns matter more than ever. And maybe this time B.C. will finally make the difference.

Kyle Braid is Senior Vice President of Ipsos Public Affairs based in Vancouver.