The last full week of the Nova Scotia election campaign has been a rocky one for the Liberals, who went into the race with lots of confidence and now appear to be on the defensive against the opposition parties.
While Liberal leader Iain Rankin launched his campaign last month on messages of optimism and hope for the future, the late stage of the campaign is focused more on attacking his opponents.
“The strategy has shifted a little bit from optimism to fear: fear of the other candidates, essentially,” said Tom Urbaniak, a political science professor at Cape Breton University.
“It does signal to me that this race has gotten closer, and there will be some surprises on election night.”
In an unusual move, Labi Kousoulis, the incumbent candidate for Halifax Citadel–Sable Island and Rankin’s former rival for Liberal leadership, met with reporters on Tuesday to critique the Progressive Conservative and NDP platforms.
That suggests there could be some worry among Liberal strategists, said Urbaniak, adding that this week “has not been going well for the Liberals.”
A rocky week
The week got off to a shaky start on Sunday, when Rankin was greeted by disability rights advocates during a campaign announcement in Halifax. They criticized the government for failing to follow through on a plan to create better housing options for people with disabilities.
He posted a picture of himself with Vicky Levack of the Disability Rights Coalition of Nova Scotia on Twitter, thanking her for voicing her concerns.
But that didn’t sit well with Levack, who said on Twitter that she didn’t approve of the photo op. “I’m not gonna lie I was disgusted then he used me as a prop,” she tweeted.
Rankin’s “vaccine passport” announcement also wasn’t ideal: it wasn’t promised in the Liberal platform and it was not recommended by Public Health.
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In fact, just over a week before he made that announcement, Rankin told Global News, when asked if he would support a vaccine passport program, that protocols for events and gatherings would be determined based on Public Health recommendations.
This rocky week comes as Rankin is still contending with scandals from earlier on in the campaign, which include previous DUI charges and the alleged ousting of former Dartmouth South candidate Robyn Ingraham over boudoir photos.
“That issue was never fully resolved in this campaign for the Liberal party,” said Urbaniak.
A recent Narrative Research poll released this week also suggested the Liberals are losing support, and said 35 per cent of voters are still undecided.
But Urbaniak cautioned that polls should be taken with a grain of salt, especially in this case, where only 540 people were surveyed, with just 277 decided voters among them.
“When we get an opinion poll where the sample size is only in the hundreds, we’re going to have a relatively high margin of error,” he said.
Impact of voter turnout
Throughout the campaign, the Progressive Conservatives have been promising improved access to health care while the NDP has been focused on levelling inequalities. Both have done a decent job of staying on-message, said Urbaniak
If their messages end up resonating with voters when they go to vote on Aug. 17, a poor performance by the Liberals in this election could have a “deflating” effect on the party, he said.
“Certainly in the event of a loss, Iain Rankin’s leadership of the Liberal party would be called into play,” said Urbaniak.
Voter turnout – which has been on the decline in recent years – will be a big factor in who wins or loses. An upcoming federal election, as well as the fact that the provincial election was called in the summer when many people may not be paying attention to politics, could have an impact on that.
“For the governing Liberals, I think the hope has to be that voter turnout doesn’t go too low, because … part of their strategy was that enough Nova Scotians – even if not totally animated, totally excited – will think, ‘Well, the current government is good enough,’” he said.
“That kind of approach requires a somewhat higher voter turnout.”
Asked if Rankin may have made a mistake by calling an election this summer, Urbaniak laughed.
“Ask me that after Aug. 17,” he said.
In an emailed statement Thursday, the Liberal party said it was “optimistic for the future of Nova Scotia.”
“Throughout this campaign we have laid out our vision for a strong economic recovery that is sustainable and inclusive,” it said.
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