For a long time, it seemed every time there was a federal election the results were known even before the polls closed in British Columbia.
But now B.C. at least has a hope to feel the election isn’t over before they vote. The polls close almost everywhere in the country at the same time.
The province is one of the few places in the country where there are three or even four parties in play for a certain riding. These swing ridings are what will lead all four major party leaders running candidates in B.C. to spend a bunch of time during the election in the province.
Here is a look at what each party has to lose and gain in B.C. this election.
Liberals
Liberal leader Justin Trudeau often refers to B.C. as one of his homes. He spent a lot of time growing up in the province and taught high school in Vancouver before entering politics.
British Columbia was also kind to Trudeau in 2015. The Liberals won 17 ridings six years ago in the province, the most they ever have in B.C.
But in the last election, they lost six of those seats; five to the Conservatives and one to Independent Jody Wilson-Raybould, a former Liberal.
The focus this time around will be to win back those ridings from 2015, all but Kelowna—Lake Country located in Metro Vancouver. Expect Trudeau to spend time in Vancouver, Langley, the Tri-Cities and Richmond as a way to wrestle those seats back.
The focus will be on SkyTrain funding, child care, and the party’s environmental policies. The Langley ridings could swing due to SkyTrain funding, while child care plays well in Vancouver Granville and ridings in the Tri-Cities.
If they win this riding it will be a successful night: Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon.
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If they lose this riding it will be a bad night: Burnaby North—Seymour.
Conservatives
Although 2019 was a tough election for Andrew Scheer, he was a winner in British Columbia. The party rode a wave in the Metro Vancouver suburbs, which helped them jump from nine seats to 17 in B.C. two years ago.
The fear from the party is those seats are now vulnerable two years later. New leader Erin O’Toole is expected to spend election time in the Tri-Cities, Richmond, Langley and across the region speaking to the core economic issues that made the party a success last time.
But O’Toole will be battling against a Liberal government that is spending big in B.C. The Conservatives are up against the Liberal’s promises to fund child care and SkyTrain.
The one place the party is looking to pull the upset is West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country. John Weston is running again and is hoping to defeat incumbent Patrick Weiler.
Another potential surprise is Fleetwood—Port Kells where former MLA Dave Hayer is hoping to beat Liberal incumbent Ken Hardie.
If they win this riding it will be a successful night: Fleetwood—Port Kells.
If they lose this riding it will be a bad night: Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge.
NDP
The federal NDP is well equipped to do well in British Columbia.
Leader Jagmeet Singh is the only federal leader representing a B.C. riding and B.C. is the only province with an NDP provincial government.
Both these things mean the NDP will have lots of politically motivated resources ready to help engage voters and get them to the polls.
The two areas to watch for the party are Vancouver Island and riding-rich Metro Vancouver. The NDP has dreams of flipping both Green seats and painting the entire island orange.
Singh also has his eyes set on some of the Vancouver ridings, including in the Tri-Cities and Burnaby where they have been successful in the past.
There is a possibility for the NDP to gain a few seats in B.C. and potentially even win the most seats in the province. But for that to happen Singh would need to continue to ride the momentum shown in current polls.
Unlike 2019, the NDP is not losing a bunch of their most high-profile incumbents in the province even before voting begins.
High-profile environmental activist Avi Lewis is expected to run for the party in West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky. He is a long shot, but a big name.
The party is also hoping to win back Kootenay—Columbia, with former MP Wayne Stetski running again after losing to Conservative Rob Morrison in 2019.
If they win this riding it will be a successful night: Kootenay—Columbia.
If they lose this riding it will be a bad night: Victoria.
Greens
In a word: everything.
The federal Greens have counted on British Columbia for the entirety of their existence on the national stage.
The Greens won 12.5 per cent of the votes in the province in 2019 and it turned into a pair of seats. The 12.5 per cent is the third-highest total the Greens received in any province.
The Greens’ only two incumbents are both running in B.C. — former leader Elizabeth May and Paul Manly.
But both Manly and May seem to be out of step with current leader Annamie Paul. Unlike previous elections where the leader spent most of the time in B.C., Paul seems set on spending her time in Toronto Centre where she is trying to win a seat.
May transcends the party, especially in her riding of Saanich—Gulf Islands. No matter what happens at the national level, May has a good chance of winning.
Manly is a different story. Nanaimo—Ladysmith is historically an NDP seat that Manly has now wrestled from them in two straight elections. If Manly doesn’t get help from the main campaign, he may struggle with the resources needed to win a third time.
Losing either seat would be devastating to the Greens’ short- and long-term outlook. The hope of gaining seats in the province also seems unlikely based on recent polling.
If they win this riding it will be a successful night: Victoria.
If they lose this riding it will be a bad night: Nanaimo—Ladysmith.
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