Saskatchewan estimates it has roughly 18,700 asymptomatic cases of coronavirus

Health officials estimate there are about 18,700 people in Saskatchewan who are infected with COVID-19 but are not showing symptoms.

The Ministry of Health and the Saskatchewan Health Authority said the figure was calculated as part of its modelling to help the province plan its acute care response to the pandemic.

They say the estimate, released publicly for the first time this week, was put together using different metrics including case numbers and hospitalizations, and shows why health orders need to be followed even if people think they don’t have the virus.

“There are still a lot of questions and I think not a lot of granularity on what asymptomatic infections look like and what they mean in regards to transmission,” said virologist and University of Manitoba professor Jason Kindrachuk.

“Can they still spread the virus? Yes. Do we necessarily know how much? No.”

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Saskatchewan has the highest rate of active cases per capita in Canada and on Wednesday added another 180 new infections to its caseload. Two more residents died.

Health officials say the number of asymptomatic people in the province is about two per cent of the population at any given time.

Kindrachuk said it’s difficult to figure out the difference between people who are infected with COVID-19 but have no symptoms and those who are pre-symptomatic.

Generally, doctors and health experts are trying to better understand the transmission of more contagious COVID-19 variants, like the mutation found in the United Kingdom, and determine what makes them easier to spread, he said.

So far, three cases of the U.K. variant have been detected in Saskatchewan, but the province says all were travel-related and there is no evidence of community spread.

Alberta and Manitoba have also reported the presence of the more concerning variant.

“If this is a particular variant that is able to better attach to the cells of somebody that becomes infected, does that play a role for us … in trying to better understand what asymptomatic infection and transmission looks like?” Kindrachuk said.

“Absolutely, because we need to know.”

Health officials say the seven-day average of new daily infections in Saskatchewan hovers slightly above 200, while 196 people remain in hospital, with 28 of them in intensive care.

Kindrachuk said it’s imperative that policy-makers in the province and beyond closely track how variants move in the community to avoid any spread from getting out of control.

“We can’t rely on vaccination alone to get us through this. Certainly, it’s a part of the equation, but we have to do a lot at the community level to try and curb transmission.”