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B.C. on track to see 1,000 new COVID-19 cases a day if changes not made: Modelling numbers

Click to play video 'B.C. releases November 2020 coronavirus modelling data' B.C. releases November 2020 coronavirus modelling data
B.C. releases November 2020 coronavirus modelling data – Nov 12, 2020

British Columbia could see more than 1,000 new cases of COVID-19  every day over the next two weeks if people don’t cut down on contacts now.

In the latest modelling numbers, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said cases of COVID-19 are set to double over the next 13 days without significant changes in people’s behaviour.

The growth of the virus continues to be worst in Fraser Health, followed by Vancouver Coastal Health. The other health authorities continue to have moderate growth or the spread of the virus.

The City of Surrey has been hardest hit by the virus with 3,993 cases of COVID-19 in the city since the start of the spread.

There have been 3,435 cases of the virus in the City of Vancouver.

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According to the modelling numbers, there has been a recent surge in cases of people over the age of 80, who are at the highest risk of dying from the virus.

There are now 35 out of 100,000 British Columbians in that age bracket with the virus. Just four weeks ago the rate was below 10 out of 100,000.

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Hospitalizations have soared as well, quadrupling since the beginning of September. There are now more people in hospital with the virus than at the peak at the beginning of April.

Thursday’s modelling update was the first since the beginning of October.

Click to play video 'Dr. Bonnie Henry to unveil latest modeling projections on Thursday' Dr. Bonnie Henry to unveil latest modeling projections on Thursday
Dr. Bonnie Henry to unveil latest modeling projections on Thursday – Nov 12, 2020

Henry has said this newly-released data will support the decision to implement new regional measures to crack down on social gatherings in Metro Vancouver.

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“In the last two weeks, we started to see rapid increasing growths, so more exponential growth, particularly focused in the Vancouver Coastal-Fraser Health regions,” Henry said Saturday when announcing the new measures.

Read more: Marginal increase in COVID-19 cases among B.C. children since start of school, province reports

“That’s the reason why we’re taking these additional actions to address that rapid transmission and rapid increase in people being affected here in this region.”

Henry said no one under the age of 20 has been sent to intensive care with the virus. Most school-age children with symptoms for the virus don’t have the virus. Only 1.7 per cent of children tested for the virus test positive.

The province presented data around the spread of the virus in the school system for the first time. As of Nov. 5, there have been 261 school exposures in B.C.’s 1,942 schools. Nine of 10 schools in B.C. have not had an exposure. The numbers are for students and adults in the school system.

“There have been less a dozen incidents of transmission in the school setting,”  Henry said. “What that tells us is the measures that we have in place, screening out people who are ill, is working.”