Cases of COVID-19 continue to rise in Alberta, with 2,268 new cases and 15 deaths related to the disease identified since Friday.
Alberta’s chief medical officer of health released the latest COVID-19 data on Tuesday afternoon, the first time since Friday due to website upgrades performed over the weekend.
Dr. Deena Hinshaw said there were, on average, 567 new cases identified per day over the last four days.
“This is a large and troubling number, one that drives home the challenge that we are facing,” Hinshaw said.
Alberta recorded 581 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, 525 on Saturday, 592 on Sunday and 570 on Monday.
Hinshaw said Alberta’s positivity rate has risen to 6.8 per cent, and in Edmonton, it’s almost nine per cent.
The total number of active cases in Alberta hit 6,110 Tuesday. Of those, 2,581 were in the Edmonton zone, 2,532 were in the Calgary zone, 235 were in the central zone, 317 were in the south zone, 413 were in the north zone and 32 were not tied to any specific zone.
Hinshaw said Calgary’s growth rate remained high, with an “R number” of 1.2 over the past five days.
“This is not good news. This is a problem,” she said.
One thing that shows some promise, according to Hinshaw, is that Edmonton has reached an R value of 1 over the last five days, “showing that the measures have had some effect.”
“It is a good start but it is not enough yet.”
It’s been just over a week since the province implemented additional public health measures in Edmonton and Calgary, including limiting social gatherings to 15 people.
Hinshaw said within the next few days, Albertans will begin to see if the restrictions are enough to reduce the rate of transmission.
“If they are not, we must consider other options,” she said.
However, Hinshaw did not say what any additional restrictions might look like. She said the province will continue to make changes based on the data and where spread is occurring.
As of Tuesday afternoon, about 53 per cent of the COVID-19 cases were from an unknown source.
“That is absolutely concerning and one of the things that is obviously driving some of the case numbers up. However, the important thing in terms of the actions that we take is that we’re looking at the things we do know. And what we know in the data we have is very consistent with what we know from many other jurisdictions about what the risks are,” she said.
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“We know that risks of COVID spread are significant in social gatherings, we know that risks of COVID spread are significant in places where people are in close proximity with each other.
“What we’re saying in terms of the restrictions we’ve put in place, we’re targeting where our data tells us we have problems, but also where the evidence across jurisdictions tells us where the greatest risks of spread are. I think that if Albertans are following the public health measures that are in place, if they’re following those additional restrictions and being cautious, that we can get our numbers down.
“We are at a critical juncture in this pandemic,” she said, “but we cannot give up. We must not give up.”
Hospitalization numbers show ‘sharp and concerning increase’
There were 167 people hospitalized with COVID-19 on Tuesday, 27 of whom were being treated in intensive care.
“This is a sharp and concerning increase,” Hinshaw said of the hospitalizations.
Of those in hospital, 100 patients are in Edmonton facilities while the rest are spread out throughout the province.
“It is Edmonton right now that is seeing the biggest impact on our acute care,” Hinshaw said.
However, she also stressed that she is “extremely concerned about the trends in Calgary.”
“Calgary has seemed to be about two weeks behind Edmonton and we do see about a seven- to 10-day lag between when we see our new case counts rise and when we start to see our hospitalizations start to increase.”
Alberta records 15 deaths
Alberta recorded 15 additional deaths since the data was last released on Friday — 10 people from the Edmonton zone, four from the Calgary zone and one from the South zone.
Three people linked to the outbreak at the Millwoods Shepherds Care Centre in Edmonton died: a woman in her 60s, a man in his 70s and a woman in her 90s.
Three people linked to the outbreak at Edmonton General Care Centre in Edmonton passed away: a man in his 80s, a woman in her 80s and a woman in her 100s.
A woman in her 90s who was linked to the outbreak at Edmonton’s Royal Alexandra Hospital died, as well as a man in his 70s linked to the outbreak at the St. Albert Retirement Residence and a man in his 80s linked to the outbreak at Villa Marguerite in the Edmonton zone.
A man in his 70s from the Edmonton zone who was not linked to continuing care also passed away.
There were two more fatalities linked to the outbreak at Carewest George Boyack in the Calgary zone died: a man in his 80s and a woman in her 90s.
A woman in her 90s from Extendicare Cedars Villa and a man in his 90s from Extendicare Hillcrest, both in the Calgary zone, also died.
The lone death in the South zone was a man in his 80s linked to the outbreak at Edith Cavell Care Centre.
Alberta’s death toll from COVID-19 now stands at 338.
Nenshi calls the numbers ‘extremely troubling’
Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi said he saw the numbers prior to them being released Tuesday afternoon and said “they are extremely troubling.”
“We are on track as a province to have 1,000 new cases a day as soon as the end of this week. And so this is extraordinarily troubling,” Nenshi said.
“We’re not just above where we were in the spring; we are far above where we were in the spring.”
Nenshi said now is the time to “redouble our efforts” to avoid another lockdown. The mayor urged people to keep up with good hygiene, physical distancing and wear a mask.
“I don’t want another lockdown. Nobody wants another lockdown. But ultimately, if that’s our only choice to keep people healthy and safe and prevent an economic meltdown, then that’s what we have to do.”
When asked about Nenshi’s statement on Alberta reaching 1,000 cases a day by the end of the week, Hinshaw did not specifically say whether she believes the province is on trend to reach that number.
“The predictions that are being looked at, I think we’re looking at the trends that we had in our new case numbers late last week,” Hinshaw said.
“What we saw over the weekend were very concerning high numbers and at the same time they were concerning, they were also plateauing. This is not enough. People should not let their guard down, they should not back off from following the new restrictions because it’s not enough to plateau. What we need is to bring those numbers down.
“We need to limit the numbers of interactions we’re having, close contacts with people, the number of connections between networks and that is the way that we will make sure that our future is not that prediction.”
Comparing COVID-19 to influenza
With flu season underway in Alberta, Hinshaw said she has heard people dismiss COVID-19 as being no different from influenza. However, while she noted there are “some similarities,” she stressed the differences between the viruses and the challenges that each present to Albertans.
“First, there is no vaccine for COVID-19, unlike influenza. Second, this virus is more deadly than influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the preliminary data is clear,” Hinshaw said.
“In the last four influenza seasons, the peak number of deaths we have recorded in a full year is 92. In just eight months, there have been 338 deaths from COVID-19, despite taking extraordinary measures to contain transmission.”
She also noted that COVID-19 has a greater impact on the health-care system. In the last five years, the maximum number of influenza outbreaks Alberta has had in acute care in a single year was 40 in 2017/2018.
“In six months alone, and despite aggressive measures to limit transmission, we have already had more than 40 COVID-19 outbreaks in acute care settings,” she said.
“It is important that we cannot treat this virus as something that our health-care system can easily absorb or something that will simply depart when spring arrives.”
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